[opendtv] Re: News: DIRECTV Sued Over HDTV Picture Quality
- From: Frank Eory <frank.eory@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sat, 23 Sep 2006 11:29:00 -0700
Tom Barry wrote:
I sort of agree with this scenario except I'm not sure any CE
manufacturer will be willing to provide the $50 converters that will be
the fall guy for this. It might be costly and embarrassing as the focus
of "why they don't work" may be concentrated on those boxes.
So as 2009 approaches it may turn out nobody is willing to make them.
- Tom
Bingo! I suspect that nobody will be willing to make them. The TAM may
be as high as 10's of millions of units, or it may not even be as high
as 1 million units. The ATSC STB market will also be extremely
short-lived, with sales peaking in the first year after NTSC shut-off
and declining rapidly each year afterward. No one knows exactly how
American consumers will respond to the reality that a secondary TV set
in the bedroom or kitchen will no longer be able to receive free OTA
signals after NTSC shut-off. How many will be willing to spend even $50
-- and add another appliance -- just to retain that capabability on
those old sets? Most NTSC TV sets won't even fetch a $50 price in a
garage sale (which is where many more of them will end up after 2009).
As for primary TV sets, that's a no-brainer. American consumers finally
understand digital TV and especially HDTV, and they want it for their
primary TV watching. Prices continue to fall and sales of HDTV continue
to take a larger percentage of the market. Even lower income families
will be more likely to buy a new HDTV in 2009 than to pay $50 to keep
the old junker set limping along.
China Inc. might see a short-lived opportunity in $50 "junk" STBs that
could yield a decent ROI in the first year or two after NTSC shut-off.
But any sort of U.S. government RFQ will probably kill even that limited
interest. Any well-written RFQ has detailed performance requirements,
and a government-issued RFQ for ATSC STBs would most likely include
explicit RF performance/reception quality requirements that must be met.
That's a deal-breaker in a $50 retail CE product that has a short market
life and slim margins.
-- Frank
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