[AR] Re: Hypersonics have finally arrived

  • From: Henry Vanderbilt <hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Thu, 15 Oct 2020 15:38:33 -0700

Bill,

I'm sure they're electrically-powered continuous-wave lasers that are being reported on as in field-test in the tens of kilowatts power range.  If I was sure they were diode lasers however, I wouldn't have phrased that part "I presume".  It's been a while since I followed the technology closely.

I suspect Ken/Roxanna has it right; the technology involved is likely fiber optic lasers.  Which on hasty reading-up, can be pumped with diode emitters, so at least I'm not totally off base.

My understanding is that Free Electron Lasers are pulsed, not continuous output.  And my impression is that while they're still being looked at for defense apps, they're not the frontrunner these days.  To the extent one can trust an impression of an inherently sensitive subject gained purely from reports in the open press, of course.

Henry

On 10/15/2020 3:06 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:

Henry:

You sure those are diodes?  All the one’s I’ve seen were FEL’s.

Bill

On Thu, Oct 15, 2020 at 2:59 PM Henry Vanderbilt <hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> wrote:

    Apply a potential difference to a conductive material, and you'll
    get a net migration of electrons along the potential direction. 
    "electric".

    Oh, you wanted something more specific than that? :-) Current
    public reports of tests and prototypes seem to cluster around what
    I presume are diode lasers with continuous outputs in the tens of
    kilowatts range, mounted with appropriate pointing and
    beam-forming on ships, aircraft, and large ground vehicles.  Some
    stories give the impression that the customers think another order
    of magnitude of reliable power output (in the hundreds of
    kilowatts) will give them a useful area defense against targets
    heavier than the small rockets/shells and small drones commonly
    mentioned as current test targets.


    Henry

    On 10/15/2020 1:48 PM, roxanna Mason wrote:
    electric lasers these days.
    Elaborate on "electric"

    Ken

    On Thu, Oct 15, 2020 at 1:41 PM Henry Vanderbilt
    <hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
    wrote:

        Utility in evading missile defenses aside, one thing to keep
        in mind is, for certain targets - among them ships - payload
        fraction is less important.  A hypersonic impact delivers
        TNT-equivalent energy for the entire vehicle mass involved
        even with no actual warhead on board at around Mach 9, and
        the equivalent energy of a 25%-of-vehicle mass TNT warhead at
        Mach ~4.5.

        Given that the main penetrating-defenses advantages seem to
        be maneuvering beyond an interceptor's ability to follow, and
        operating in atmosphere bands where the interceptor loses
        effectiveness, effective anti-missile beam weapons will
        likely negate much of those advantages and largely obsolete
        expensive hypersonics.  Which may well explain why USN (and
        USAF) seems very interested in electric lasers these days.

        Henry

        On 10/15/2020 2:23 AM, George Herbert wrote:
        OT...

        It’s not much of a secret I do missiles and nuclear proliferation 
research and analysis including threat systems analysis as a side job.

        There are a few things you can do with hypersonic weapons.  You can 
approach targets in the inconvenient altitude and speed band where there’s too 
little lift for normal fins and too much for unstreamlined exoatmospheric 
interceptors.  Midcourse defense gets very difficult... You can change 
direction in hypersonic flight, allowing flightpaths avoiding defenses or 
attacking simultaneously from different directions, complicating defenses.  
Under some circumstances they can use trajectory changes in target approach to 
maneuver out of interceptor engagement envelopes after interceptor burnout.  
Against rapidly maneuvering targets there is a better target volume capability. 
 Under some circumstances the range is longer than a smaller ballistic 
trajectory Maneuvering Reentry Vehicle can do.

        They are much more expensive and harder to do than maneuvering 
ballistic RVs.  They can’t carry effective decoys, IR sensors see them 
thousands of kilometers away, and avoiding defenses has to be done essentially 
blind because they can’t credibly detect incoming interceptors with onboard 
sensors.

        The payload fraction of ballistic RVs is about 0.5, of maneuvering RVs 
0.3-0.4, of hypersonic glide weapons 0.2 or less and Hypersonic cruise weapons 
0.1 or so.  For the same payload they’re tremendously larger missiles to start 
with, with corresponding ship, aircraft, submarine, truck, or silo capacity 
issues.

        They make better sense as Chinese antiship Missiles than as US prompt 
conventional strike missiles.  The countries don’t have analogous needs.


        -george


        Sent from my iPhone

        On Oct 14, 2020, at 10:19 PM, Troy Prideaux<troy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>  
<mailto:troy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>  wrote:

        
        attracted a lot of attention and hype but had no military value
        whatsoever.
        (For the sponsoring nation, that is -- it had considerable value to 
their
        enemies,
        since it pulled desperately-scarce resources away from things that *did*
        have
        real military value.)  The recent hypersonics hype smells much the same 
to
        me...

        Henry
        I guess the difference now is the "enemy/ies" are all on the same 
hypersonic
        bandwagon.

        Troy





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