Jim,
I might have to quietly raise my arm as the culprit for derailing things a
bit in that direction. I (incorrectly) made the assertion that you ultimately
need a BFR to get to Mars to which John corrected me with the alternative
option of on-orbit assembly with existing lift capability and I have to concede
it’s an alternative that I actually was aware of. In fact, I can remember
Daniel Goldin arguing that should be the primary purpose of the Shuttle when he
was the NASA administrator.
Whether that’s more practical is probably the debate that splinted off from
that a bit, but I don’t think anyone came in from the view that Starship isn’t
a good thing or idea.
Troy
From: arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On ;
Behalf Of James Fackert
Sent: Wednesday, 6 October 2021 3:01 AM
To: arocket list <arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [AR] Re: big rockets
Somehow, this discussion presumes that there are programs actively creating
viable alternatives to SpaceX.
SpaceX have already demonstrated that recovering and re-using Falcon 9 boosters
is workable and practical.
NOBODY else has made significant progress towards accomplishing this at scale.
Nobody has a program to mass produce a cheap expendable booster. Gosh, why not?
SpaceX owns the launch market for nearly everything, in terms of cost to orbit,
tons to orbit, flight rates, etc.
One can ask: "Is re-use economically viable?" How much does it really cost to
rework before reflight?
SpaceX is a private, company, and these costs are not public knowledge, but I
am sure that the big lenders that are heavily invested in SpaceX ARE informed
of costs and profitability and they seem quite confident that it is an
excellent investment, since SpaceX seems to be able to get all the cash it
needs for expansion.
This includes massive investment in infrastructure and manufacturing facilities
approaching shipyard scale, with systems to build Starship and SuperHeavy.
This is not just the "cargo Container" to get stuff up and down. it is the
freighter fleet and infrastructure to build, launch and recover the freighters.
and make the engines. and make the steel. Damn.
What about assembly in space? Does it make sense?
Until there is a freighter to get lots of mass up (and down), this is moot. It
will be sorted out when the freighter system is real. Action will start with
vehicles launched as complete systems, capable of missions as self contained
vehicles.h integral propellant transfer. Refueling and service infrastructure
will develop quickly, and soon the Starship payload capacity will seem
"normal", and for the first time, REALLY big orbital structures will be
practical, and not just mental exercise, and it will make sense to build
infrastructure for construction in orbit. Then the fun really starts!
Who is building launch capability anywhere close to SpaceX? And how is that
going? Who is contemplating it?