[AR] Re: changing hardware (was Re: Re: Re spacex falcon 9 landing)
- From: Henry Spencer <hspencer@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: Arocket List <arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Mon, 28 Dec 2015 23:42:57 -0500 (EST)
On Mon, 28 Dec 2015, Ian Woollard wrote:
Meanwhile the space shuttle went for full reusability for the Orbiter from
day 1. That does not seem to have worked.
Not when done by JSC and Rockwell under a tight funding cap, no. That
doesn't mean that there was anything wrong with going for full
reusability; you're extrapolating much too far from one data point.
...Soyuz is more flexible and the Space Shuttle less so, so any problems
that Soyuz have had were easier to incrementally remove.
Except for the ones that are built in, like the very cramped cabin and the
severely limited baggage mass. In other words, much like the shuttle --
the problems that were easy to fix, got fixed, and the ones that were
hard, people have just lived with.
> So what? Building even an *expendable* new launcher is almost impossible
> to economically justify at current launch rates.
It may have escaped your attention, but Elon has actually just done that.
No, sorry, read what I wrote. I'm not talking about whether it makes
sense to a billionaire with a private long-term plan involving massive
deep-space activity and consequently very high launch rates. Or even to
someone who's hoping that nice low prices will lead to a high launch rate
for more mundane traffic. I'm saying it can't be justified at CURRENT
LAUNCH RATES -- which was the condition you stated.
Like everyone else working hard to build new launchers, Elon is justifying
it (at least in part) based on changing the world sufficiently to make
current launch rates look insignificant. I'd be very surprised if he can
ever make any money on the deal -- considering the amount invested so far,
which is by no means all government money -- if he continues launching
just a few times a year. I'm far from the only person to have reached
that conclusion. If you have a detailed numeric argument to the contrary,
please present it.
Henry
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