[opendtv] Re: News: Nielsen Gives Fuzzy Picture of HDTV Penetration

  • From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Thu, 8 Nov 2007 16:51:46 -0500

John Shutt wrote:

>> In, say, 10 or 15 years time, John, when cable systems
>> have been converted to all digital transmissions, and
>> when the 4:3 sets out there will start petering out,
>> what motivation will there be to retain 4:3 transmissions?
>
> By that time all digital cable systems will be HD using
> advanced codecs.
>
> In ten years "SD" programming may be 480p60, which is ED.
> This may well be 16:9 anamorphic.
>
> NTSC, including digital 480i30, will remain 4:3 until
> interlace is completely phased out.

So the first thing I read in your answer is that you don't see any
motivation to continue broadcasting 4:3 programming. Of course, I agree.

The second thing I see in your answer is that there will be no
motivation to broadcast interlace either.

Well, since interlacing is only retained because it was a good fit for
CRTs, and since 4:3 has also been retained only because of the large
installed based of CRTs, I guess the two predictions fit hand in glove.
4:3 is disappearing fast on store shelves, now that (a) CRT TVs are
disappearing and (b) that even the small LCDs are going 16:9.

As to SD bit rates, it's possible that we'll see 480 at 24p or 30p used,
to replace the channels now occupied by 480 at 60i. The digital
bandwidth needed should be similar. These wouldn't be good for sports,
but then again, sports will no doubt be going HD anyway.

Bert
 
 
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