[opendtv] Re: Obama Asks Congress to Delay DTV Transition
- From: "Barry Wilkins" <barry.barrywilkins@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sat, 10 Jan 2009 19:23:30 +1300
Yes Mark,
I have seen Congressman Bartlett on YouTube regarding this issue. If you are
using You Tube you will find good interviews and seminars with Colin
Campbell - a very experienced geologist and founder of the peak oil
awareness movement. Anyway, that's my lot on the issue other than two last
minute quotes: "People can only take so much reality"
And from Mr Hubbert: " The world can only stand so many doublings of
anything..."
Regards
Barry
On Sat, Jan 10, 2009 at 3:30 PM, Mark A. Aitken <maitken@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> Peak oil is very real. Ask Congressman Bartlett of Maryland, a good friend
> of mine...
>
> Mark
> "live from CES"
>
> Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry
>
> ------------------------------
> *From*: "Barry Wilkins"
> *Date*: Sat, 10 Jan 2009 15:15:51 +1300
> *To*: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> *Subject*: [opendtv] Re: Obama Asks Congress to Delay DTV Transition
> John,
>
> Indeed this is off topic and therefore this shall be the last post from me
> on the issue.
>
> I am sorry to read you are not likely to consider a change of view with
> more information. I like to keep an open mind and I will always do so. It is
> just that there has not been any contradictory evidence to counteract the
> overwhelming evidence of imminent peak oil (so far), and I've researched
> this in depth.
>
> I am sorry to have to inform you that the Cantarell decline is NOT
> inherently due to mismanagement but it may appear so from the outside. I
> guess we will have to differ on this.
>
> I applaud your low energy life style and hope I will be able to reduce my
> energy consumption in the future to a similar level.
>
> Here, where I live, the climate is equivalent to the Mediterranean region
> with peak summer temperatures (now) around 38 degrees C or more and winter
> not below 0 degrees. I am on the east coast mid North Island (Napier). I do
> not use air conditioning nor central heating. I have been using a bus to
> work most days (20km).
>
> New Zealand has a lot of coal but very limited oil. We have gas fields but
> only enough for supply up until 2016 at current consumption. We have
> considerable geothermal regions with associated power stations attached.
> Wind is abundant and wind energy is progressing to make up about 30% of
> generating capacity. Hydro electricity makes up most of the rest.
>
> Thanks for the discussion.
>
> Barry
>
> On Sat, Jan 10, 2009 at 2:36 PM, John Willkie
> <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>wrote:
>
>> Barry;
>>
>>
>>
>> This is off-topic. All the assumptions you and others make assume no
>> change in behavior. This has been an issue for decades, and there are other
>> places to discuss it. I don't care what people who have not investigated
>> something think about that. While oil is cheap, nothing will change. Right
>> now, the oil economies are in crisis due to low prices, and it needs to be
>> noted that high prices caused usage declines for the first time in more than
>> 30 years.
>>
>>
>>
>> I won't rethink anything; I said as oil becomes more expensive, more wells
>> will be put into service, but you act as if you read me saying the
>> opposite. Tell me about your personal energy usage. I suspect, you being
>> in Kiwiland, that you spend much on heating your residence. Does your
>> country of residence a net importer or exporter of oil?
>>
>>
>>
>> Mexico's petroleum problem is a simple one: it's government owned, and
>> that has caused the decline. Social unrest is expected in a few years when
>> the economic effects of this stupidity – no foreign participation in oil in
>> Mexico, except for the ability to buy motor oil from various brands – hits
>> home. Of course, that might be minor in a country where 5300 people were
>> killed in drug gang wars last year.
>>
>>
>>
>> John Willkie
>>
>>
>> ------------------------------
>>
>> *De:*opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] *En
>> nombre de *Barry Wilkins
>> *Enviado el:* Friday, January 09, 2009 4:43 PM
>>
>> *Para:* opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> *Asunto:* [opendtv] Re: Obama Asks Congress to Delay DTV Transition
>>
>>
>>
>> John,
>>
>> I know that there are many superficial arguments which apparently
>> contradict the consequences of peak oil. However, there are no sound
>> arguments that state that when the oil becomes scarce the price stays the
>> same. The point is, it gets expensive - very expensive. Those wells you
>> mentioned they can re-open, will quickly diminish in output even if they get
>> more oil at elevated cost. It is the cost going inexorably up as the expense
>> of extraction increases that is the problem. Even then, no matter how hard
>> they pump and with what ever technology, after the global peak, they will
>> not be able to supply the quantity of oil to meet demand, even if the demand
>> stayed constant (which it shall not).
>>
>> There are no professional people in the oil industry (or out of it) of any
>> reputable standing, who advocate the hypothesis of rapid subterrainian
>> synthesis of oil over short time scales. If any supposition should be
>> dismissed, it is this one.
>>
>> With regard to your country of residence, which I believe is Mexico, I
>> have it on good account that although it is a current oil exporter to the US
>> for instance (around 11% of US imports), the largest field, Cantarell, is on
>> a very rapid serious decline after peaking and that Mexico is likely to be a
>> non exporter in less than 2 years.
>>
>> The USA peaked in 1970 as predicted on time by the famous Mr Hubbert and
>> then declined continuously no matter what technology has since been
>> utilized. I understand the USA imports more than 70% of its oil now.
>>
>> Also, take note that the global peak of discovery of oil occured in about
>> 1960. No significant fields of consequence (such as the super giants of
>> Saudi Arabia) have been found since, no matter what fancy new technology has
>> been used. This is because geologists inherently knew where the best places
>> to look first. The world has been surveyed in great depth.
>>
>> The UK North Sea oil fields have been in relentless decline for years and
>> ouput only about a fifth that which they did at peak, even with the latest
>> technology. The UK is in trouble, no doubt about it!
>>
>> The argument of peak oil is not that we will run out. That will not happen
>> for quite some time. It is that after peak occurs, the price will go
>> inexorably up with the scarcity no matter what you do.
>>
>> You can have a reduction in demand but that will occur due to economic
>> collapse which is directly attributable to the high cost. Hence the
>> consequences are there, stark and real.
>>
>> But of course, I do not expect anybody to take my word for it. Read the
>> IEA report, December 2008, and then have a rethink.
>>
>> Barry
>>
>> On Sat, Jan 10, 2009 at 11:52 AM, John Willkie <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> wrote:
>>
>> I'd recommend "Serving Two Masters" on Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac.
>>
>>
>>
>> What gets me about most "peak oil" arguments is that they tend to ignore
>> the plain realities that when oil prices get higher (which I am not
>> advocating, but which is something that happens when there is more demand
>> than supply) previously capped oil wells that the drillers found to be
>> uneconomic to run with low prices, suddenly become profitable again. And,
>> there is more incentive to use shale oil, synthetic fuels, even turning
>> foodstocks (economically) into oil.
>>
>>
>>
>> Then, there is also the question as to how and on what time scale the
>> Earth makes more oil. That oil comes from crushed plants and dinosaurs is
>> at this point, only a loose hypothesis, at best. I can't say that the Earth
>> continually generates oil on a rapid time scale, in a fashion that will
>> solve all our problems, but I can't say that isn't the case.
>>
>>
>>
>> I can also say that the end of petroleum for transportation (as a former
>> reporter covering transportation) had been predicted for 1919, 1923, 1926
>> (Spindletop took care of that for a few years), 1929, 1939, 1947, 1954, and
>> on and on …
>>
>>
>>
>> And, I'm not a big user of oil. I own no car, use public transit, walk,
>> and ride a bicycle. I have no heating or a/c at home, and my electric bill
>> is about $7 for two months. And, the country I reside in is a net exporter
>> of oil. Oil fueled all but the earliest stage of the industrial revolution,
>> and is even more important in the Information Age. It also made what we
>> know as suburbia possible.
>>
>>
>>
>> John Willkie
>>
>>
>> ------------------------------
>>
>> *De:* opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]*En
>> nombre de *Barry Wilkins
>> *Enviado el:* Friday, January 09, 2009 2:35 PM
>>
>>
>> *Para:* opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> *Asunto:* [opendtv] Re: Obama Asks Congress to Delay DTV Transition
>>
>>
>>
>> That book, John, is "The Long Emergency" by James Howard Kunstler.
>> Specifically pages 232 and 233 with reference to Fanny Mae etc. Riveting
>> reading in my view. But should you think he is but a lone voice, I suggest
>> you also refer to another excellent book, "The last oil shock" by David
>> Strahan . Or "Twilight in the Desert" by Matthew R. Simmons or "The End of
>> Oil" by Paul Roberts.
>> All the above authors come from quite different professional backgrounds
>> and yet all have done intensive studies of this subject.
>>
>> I would be interested to know your and others opinions of their writings
>> if you have a chance to peruse them.
>>
>> Barry
>>
>> On Sat, Jan 10, 2009 at 7:39 AM, John Willkie <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> wrote:
>>
>> Barry;
>>
>>
>>
>> Is that book "Serving Two Masters" by Peter Wallison?
>>
>>
>>
>> John
>>
>>
>> ------------------------------
>>
>> *De:* opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]*En
>> nombre de *Barry Wilkins
>> *Enviado el:* Friday, January 09, 2009 3:58 AM
>>
>>
>> *Para:* opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> *Asunto:* [opendtv] Re: Obama Asks Congress to Delay DTV Transition
>>
>>
>>
>> John, it must be of considerable concern to you that you believe your new
>> government is likely to dither and behave indecisively. As I understand it,
>> the US economy (and my own) is somewhat in the "poo" and likely getting more
>> crappy as the year progresses. I would have thought this is not the time to
>> be giving away free stuff unless it is food, clothing or shelter.
>>
>> I am currently reading a fascinating book that predicted the demise of
>> Freddy Mac and Fanny Mae. Ironically, a particular paragraph started " By
>> the time you read this book Freddy Mac and Fanny Mae" etc. Yes they have,
>> and this book was published in 2005! It also predicted that if such an event
>> should happen, as is likely, through a cascading effect, the world economy
>> is likely to suffer and the US economy very seriously. I am affaid this book
>> has many other dire warnings related to the phenomenon of "Peak Oil" and
>> before anybody labels me an alarmist I should point out that much of what
>> has been written is substantiated by the latest intensive study by the IEA
>> (Dec 2008).
>>
>> So, when your and my country's economies do eventually recover we will
>> likely be lumbered with the restrictions of energy starvation.
>>
>> To get back to your original point about decisiveness, yes, I hope that
>> there is an immediate wake up by the powers that be to the looming dangers
>> ahead and act decisively accordingly.
>>
>> Regards
>> Barry Wilkins
>>
>> On Fri, Jan 9, 2009 at 8:12 PM, John Willkie <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> wrote:
>>
>> Good points all, Barry. Basically, it's a forewarning of how the coming
>> administration will deal with the smallest forms of adversity; they will
>> surrender or delay making even moderately firm decisions.
>>
>>
>>
>> I was thinking after our earlier exchange on this list that the entities
>> "most hurt" by this will be the television stations whose viewers "skew"
>> either old or poor. Nobody is guaranteed television, or even free
>> television. We are very much unlike, say, the UK on that point. Come to
>> think of it, Freeview did give away receivers …
>>
>>
>>
>> John Willkie
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> ------------------------------
>>
>> *De:* opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]*En
>> nombre de *Barry Wilkins
>> *Enviado el:* Thursday, January 08, 2009 10:01 PM
>>
>>
>> *Para:* opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> *Asunto:* [opendtv] Re: Obama Asks Congress to Delay DTV Transition
>>
>>
>>
>> Why, exactly, should at the very last minute, a delay be made to account
>> for all those who must surely have been adequately forewarned of this
>> momentous change?
>>
>> Those coupons your government generously distributes to the needy are
>> something rather unique to the USA. I do not believe any other countries had
>> such a handout to the populace. I paid my NZ $399 for my STB and I consider
>> it well worth it. Your STBs are so cheap in comparison even without the
>> subsidy, I fail to see what the fuss is about. As I mentioned on one other
>> occasion, the cost surely must be no more than a good night out at a
>> restaurant for 2.
>>
>> So, if adequate warning has been given and the STBs are dirt cheap anyway,
>> why not get on with it. A certain proportion will accept it is their own
>> fault for leaving it too long and go get cable or sky. The others will no
>> doubt zoom off to the nearest store to get an STB at any cost.
>>
>> Reception with dubious antennas may be another story...
>>
>> Good luck with your transition!
>>
>> Barry Wilkins
>>
>> On Fri, Jan 9, 2009 at 12:37 PM, John Willkie <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> wrote:
>>
>> Tom;
>>
>> It is VERY DANGEROUS to personalize attorneys working for private clients
>> as
>> if they were something more than wage slaves advocating for a well-paying
>> client.
>>
>> Eric Holder as AG is a different matter, at least as pertains to the
>> pardon
>> of Marc Rich. Holder was working on a discretionary matter and was
>> supposed
>> to be representing the United States, not the Democratic Party. Never
>> befor
>> has someone who was a fugitive from justice been pardoned. I suspect his
>> nomination hearings will largely be a rubber-stamping session in the
>> current
>> climate.
>>
>> Also, it's a non-sequitur to be in favor of an empty vessel (Obama)
>> because
>> you were disgusted with the Bush Administration. George Bush hasn't been
>> on
>> a ballor since 1984.
>>
>> When you're an empty vessel that people pour their dreams into, it doesn't
>> take much to disaffect people. Making no decisions is easier than making
>> decisions.
>>
>> John Willkie
>>
>> -----Mensaje original-----
>>
>> De: opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] En
>>
>> nombre de Tom Barry
>> Enviado el: Thursday, January 08, 2009 3:13 PM
>> Para: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> Asunto: [opendtv] Re: Obama Asks Congress to Delay DTV Transition
>>
>>
>> I strongly supported Obama due to my disgust with many actions of the
>> Bush administration.
>>
>> But Obama certainly is not getting off to a very good start on some
>> issues that I care about. Delaying the transition is a very bad idea
>> right now.
>>
>> And two of the people he is appointing to the justice department are a
>> couple of my least favorite IP monopoly lawyers that prosecuted the
>> carpet bombing of mp3 download lawsuits and defended the Mickey Mouse
>> interminable copyright extension before the Supreme Court. It looks
>> like Obama is going to go with Biden's position on these types of issues.
>>
>> So I guess the honeymoon is already over for me. <sigh>
>>
>> - Tom
>>
>>
>> John Willkie wrote:
>> > Elections have consequences, but I thought that we only had one
>> president
>> at
>> > a time. Delaying the inevitable will do about nothing to get people to
>> buy
>> > converter boxes. I always thought the idea of doing the transition in
>> the
>> > middle of a Nielsen sweep would be interesting.
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > John Willkie, who notes that anything that Ed Markey supports is by
>> > experience, very foolish.
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > _____
>> >
>> > De: opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
>> En
>> > nombre de James Albro
>> > Enviado el: Thursday, January 08, 2009 12:13 PM
>> > Para: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > Asunto: [opendtv] Obama Asks Congress to Delay DTV Transition
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > Here we go...
>> >
>> > Obama Asks Congress to Delay DTV Transition
>> >
>> >
>> > By John Eggerton -- Broadcasting & Cable, 1/8/2009 2:30:00 PM
>> >
>> >
>> > Related:
>> > The <
>> http://www.broadcastingcable.com/Community/DTV+Countdown/48696.html>
>> > DTV Countdown: Complete Coverage of the DTV Transition
>> > Markey: Feb. <http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/CA6627445.html>
>> 17
>> > DTV Date May Have To Move
>> >
>> > President-elect Barack Obama has asked Congress to extend the Feb. 17
>> DTV
>> > transition date.
>> >
>> > Citing problems with the DTV-to-analog converter box program and
>> "inadequate
>> > funding" of government DTV education programs, John Podesta, co-chair of
>> the
>> > Obama-Biden transition team, requested that "the cut-off date for analog
>> > signals should be reconsidered and extended."
>> >
>> > That is according to a letter (click
>> > <
>> http://www.broadcastingcable.com/contents/pdf/Podesta%20DTV%20Letter.pdf>
>> > here to view) being sent Thursday to the chairs and ranking Republicans
>> on
>> > the House and Senate Committees overseeing communications (The House
>> Energy
>> > & Commerce Committee and Senate Commerce Committee).
>> >
>> > Saying that only 28 days after the inauguration Americans would wake up
>> to
>> > find their analog TV's no longer able to receive an over-the-air
>> signal-and
>> > pointing to the decision on the date made in 2005 and implemented by the
>> > outgoing administration-Podesta urged them to "consider a change to the
>> > legislatively mandated cut-off date."
>> >
>> > He said that funds to support the conversion are "woefully inadequate,"
>> > particularly to address the problems of seniors and low income viewers.
>> >
>> > He also suggested that there would be money from the president-elect's
>> > economic recovery package that would help address the funding
>> shortfalls.
>> >
>> > Consumers
>> >
>> <
>> http://www.broadcastingcable.com/contents/pdf/CU_DTV%20Letter%20to%20House%<http://www.broadcastingcable.com/contents/pdf/CU_DTV%20Letter%20to%20House%25>
>> > 20Commerce_FINAL.PDF> Union, which called for a similar move Wednesday
>> > after consultation with the transition, has suggested moving the date to
>> > midsummer.
>> >
>> > C 2009, Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All
>> > Rights Reserved.
>> >
>> >
>>
>>
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