[opendtv] This from another (open) thread - IPTV on LinkedIn
- From: "TLM" <TLM@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "Opendtv" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 18 Apr 2013 08:03:01 -0700
<http://www.linkedin.com/e/x9kmwp-hfny1cub-1e/vaq/232393916/41806/132122283/
view_disc/?hs=false&tok=05vg2Oh7kOtRI1> The Connected STB still reigns
supreme over the Smart TV..
Thanks to Edmund for referencing my book. Tom, I would think the length of
time that the STB has in different countries varies greatly. It may be that
in the UK that it will last a while longer. In the U.S., STBs probably have
another 7-10 years or so before they are museum pieces - much hallowed
museum pieces, but museum pieces nevertheless. STBs have a glorious history
dating back to the earliest days of television in the U.S., starting with
the UHF converter box for markets that were UHF only or intermixed markets,
and the antenna tuning box for those people who had to use outside antennas
to pick up TV signals. Both died away, as have the cable converter box and
the VCR (except for some fogies like myself who still have stuff on
videotape we don't want to digitize - or are too lazy to have it done), and
is the way the STB and the DVR are going.
TV is moving to the cloud and the STB will give way to the Smart TV or, if
you prefer, the connected TV. It just makes sense, to build the STB into the
the television set instead of having to use a separate box. Already we are
seeing the prices come down even as the abilities of the Smart TV increases.
Toshiba, for example, is now rolling out to the U.S. market a series of
smart TVs that include voice recognition + the ability to make
recommendations for shows the person might want to watch. They are pricing
them in the $1500-$2000 range to begin with for the 50" to 60" sizes, I
believe. Samsung has Smart TVs that react to voice and to hand swipes. I'm
sure LG and Sharp are doing the same thing. Prices will come down quickly as
more companies enter the competition.
The thing that is holding back both STBs and Smart TVs is the politics.
Broadcast networks and stations are not quite ready to give up and move to
the Internet with live programming because they know it will mean the end of
the tradition of free, over-the-air television in the U.S. and their lives
as they have known it. However, Aereo - if they keep winning the lawsuits
brought against them by the broadcasters - likely will hasten the day when
TV goes all Internet (whether by hardwire, Wi-Fi, or cellular delivery). Fox
and one other network is threatening to drop over-the-air delivery if Aereo
wins at the Supreme Court level. (Fox announced their intentions at NAB this
year and an article I read a couple of days ago referenced another, unnamed
network.) The CW network is already streaming live its programming while
it's being broadcast. HBO is planning to spin off HBO GO, their TV
Everywhere delivery, so they can sell its programming to people who want
just that service. As things change, STBs will be important in the initial
changes IF they take place in the next few years. If not, they will miss out
and the Smart TV will be dominant. Either way the STB is a transitional
device as it always has been from the time of early TV.
For more information on the future of TV, please check out my book, "21st
Century Television: The Players, The Viewers, The Money." It's on Amazon and
it has chapters dealing with all the different facets of the coming
television age. Thanks again to Edmund for the endorsement - I appreciate
it.
By Frank Aycock
Tom McMahon
Del Rey Consultancy
<mailto:TLM@xxxxxxxxxx> TLM@xxxxxxxxxx
<http://WWW.DelRey.Com> WWW.DelRey.Com
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