[opendtv] Re: Report: Desktops slump, mobile systems rise

  • From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Sun, 10 Apr 2011 08:57:25 -0400

At 11:48 AM -0400 4/9/11, John Shutt wrote:

I don't see it as an either/or.
The laptop has replaced the desktop for a lot of users, but there will still be a need for desktops by high end gamers. It's hard to cram in all the required memory, disk space, accelerated graphics cards with multiple screens, and dedicated controllers on a netbook.
Netbooks are not an issue here. They had a very short and well deserved "half-life."
Truth is they were bare bones stripped down PCs that were designed for one and only one purpose: 

TO BE CHEAP!
John seems to be ignoring one very important fact here; Moore's Law is still in effect and chip level integration is the driving force in the IT/CE industry today. 

One look at a current generation smartphone says volumes;
- High resolution displays with laser printer pixel densities;
- high speed CPU/IPUs with morre than adequate power to handle acquisition and playback of HD video, complex games etc; 
- Pervasive networking for (almost) anywhere/anytime connectivity;
- Touch based GUI that is simple and intuitive; gyro and motion sensing interfaces; 
- multiple development platforms for affordable apps.
- GPS and location based services;
- And its a phone too.

Tablets offer all of this and a larger screen for personal entertainment.

Will desktops go away?
Probably not. There will always be complex tasks (e.g. video content creation) that require lots of processing power, large display canvases, and dedicated I/O (typically add in boards). But routine low complexity tasks are going to move to other devices.
And gamers are not enough to keep the PC industry alive, especially since each new generation of hardware brings more than enough power to the gaming table. In case people had not noticed, most of the interesting new developments in gaming have been in the UI area with the WII, Kenect, and motion sensing tablets. Expect tablets to become the new UI for multiplayer games.
Sony and Microsoft have kep full featured game consoles alive by turning them into an alternative to the cable box. With Blu-ray players, the ability to stream Netflix and Hulu, and the creation on online games and communities, they have survived even as VCRs and DVD players are becoming irrelevant. But even here integration is taking its toll and the pricing model for console games is under intense pressure from Apple and others who have created a new casual gaming industry with free and affordable game apps. 

John continues:
There will probably be a trend towards setting up a single household desktop as a file server with multiple laptop/netbook/tablet users in the house.
More likely a cloud server that keeps all of the family files and content so they can be streamed to any device anywhere. 

Bert wrote
I can see how the hype-minded might interpret this sort of report to say that desktop, or fixed PCs, are on the way out. I think not. Just one example: Internet connected TVs would use desktop-type motherboards. Some desktop PCs will no doubt be replaced by portable devices, notebooks and tablets, but not all, IMO.
Sorry Bert, but desktop motherboards are not going to survive as the real digital transition in the family room. There are two primary reasons:
1. They are designed for an antiquated GUI that is inappropriate for the family room. Even mighty Google could not convince the public to use a pointing device and keyboard to navigate TV land.
2. Large scale integration is driving the chips that are being used to turn the TV into a portal to the world. 



No PC motherboards here!
Besides which, any successful new product is bound to show faster growth than a mature product. The same old S curve all over again. 

Sometimes mature products are replaced.

Try selling a million dollar video editing system today.

Regards
Craig


----------------------------------------------------------------------
You can UNSUBSCRIBE from the OpenDTV list in two ways:
- Using the UNSUBSCRIBE command in your user configuration settings at FreeLists.org 
- By sending a message to: opendtv-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxx with the word 
unsubscribe in the subject line.

Other related posts:

  1. Home
  2. opendtv
  3. Archive
  4. 04-2011