On 2/11/2018 2:40 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
> We may be making somewhat different assumptions about funding: I’m
> thinking about a risk tolerant billionaire rather than a USG funded
> technology effort.
Coming back to this after thinking it over for a couple days... I'd
outline a very different SSTO program approach for a risk-tolerant
billionaire than for USG.
A USG-funded technology effort implies a massively parallel approach to
resolving the remaining technology questions, with development of an
actual vehicle then TBD by the usual protracted political process.
A single private sponsor strongly implies building up one cohesive
dedicated experienced development team capable of designing a useful
SSTO. Emphasis on "experienced team". You don't get an experienced
team just by hiring experienced individuals - though that helps - you
have to incrementally build up the team's experience as a team.
This in turn implies a serial process that resolves a
pared-to-the-essential-minimum list of SSTO technology/operations
unknowns, one or more at a time, while building up the development
team's experience with building and operating systems and vehicles.
Both SpaceX and Blue did this to get where they are, from different
points on the tech-risk versus program steps spectrum. SpaceX went for
lower initial tech-risk, fewer steps to first useful flying system, Blue
for a higher-risk more advanced initial system, involving more
incremental steps.
Both however would very likely have failed, protractedly and
expensively, if they'd just recruited teams then gone straight for, say,
recoverable Falcon Heavy or full-up New Glenn.
As for what SSTO technical approach to take, I'd need to know more
details about exactly what this hypothetical billionaire wants to
accomplish before presuming to advise on that. There is a spectrum here
too from the low-risk few-unknowns end to higher-risk many-unknowns
(with the complicating factor that too low a technical risk may mean too
little useful payload, if a practical commercial result is wanted.)
Henry V