[opendtv] Re: DTV Delay Bill Introduced

  • From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Sat, 24 Jan 2009 08:13:32 -0500

At 9:10 AM -0800 1/23/09, John Willkie wrote:

And, people don't rent converter boxes.  How many of those iPods were
replacement ones?  Don't people buy several every year?
Apple does not make sales data available on each model, and I doubt that they even know what percentage of sales are for replacements/upgrades.
Likewise, I doubt they know how many Shuffles are sold to folks who already own an iPod. But the Average Selling Price (ASP) for iPods did decline in the last quarter, which suggests significant sales of the lower priced Shffles and Nanos, balancing out the large number of iPod Touches sold in the quarter at much higher ASPs.
I do not believe that existing customers buy several each year. Sales in the U.S. were down 3% year over year for the last quarter, suggesting that the market is saturating and/or that the 4.3 million iPhones sold cannibalized iPod sales.
There were very significant sales of iPods in international markets, especially during the last week of the quarter (the week after Christmas). So I think what we are seeing is that the iPod is increasing its market penetration in markets that have not yet been saturated.
The reason I compared DTV STB sales with iPod sales was simply to help calibrate the relatively small number of DTV boxes sold when compared with other consumer electronics products. And remember, this is a one time event of relatively short duration, stimulated by government cheese. 

Regards
Craig


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