[opendtv] Re: DTV Delay Bill Introduced

  • From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Sun, 25 Jan 2009 18:32:13 -0500

Craig Birkmaier wrote:

>>> That's 1.5 million more DTV boxes than the number of
>>> iPods Apple sold in the LAST QUARTER...

> Just one example. Total sales of cell phones in units is MUCH
> higher. Even the highly saturated market for DVD players is
> huge by comparison.
>
> I was just trying to calibrate these numbers in CE terms. And
> remember, this is a one time market that is being fueld by
> government subsidies. 

Yes, I know you were trying to calibrate the number, but you chose two
not-so-good comparisons.

First off, as the article stated, that 24M figure was not for the entire
year. The first quarter was essentially a bust, due to supplier
problems. And sales ramped up dramatically after that.

Secondly, you are comparing the STB to two "fashion accessories." Cell
phones and iPods are throw-away devices. You have to expect a large
turn-over every year, as people replace the older not-so-cool model. For
instance, now you need touch screen and, preferably, virtual keyboards
on the touch screen. So you have to expect people who already have
perfectly good cell phones to be itching for a new one.

And sure, I totally agree that the coupon box market is short duration.
I've always said it would be. And I also predicted that as the ATSC
standard is updated, a good example now being M/H, there will be more
opportunities for similar short-term STB sales, because people will more
readily buy an STB than a whole new TV set. If priced right, of course!

> When viewed as a percentage of the market, the UK has sold a
> far higher percentage of Freevew boxes.

No question about that. I think the UK has 62 percent of households
using OTA (I'll bet Freesat will change that number quickly, though).
Australia and Italy come in at about 75 percent. Not sure where France
is, but I'll bet it's in that 75 percent neighborhood too.

So obviously, as a percentage of households, they will sell more STBs.
But to the CE vendor, what counts is his actual sales, and 24M is a very
good number for any TV APPLIANCE, if not for a fashion accessory.

Bert
 
 
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