[opendtv] Re: DTV Delay Bill Introduced

From: Bob Miller <robmxa@xxxxxxxxx>
To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Date: Sun, 25 Jan 2009 23:29:08 -0500
The UK had 67.2% of homes using OTA DTV end of 3rd quarter 2008. That
should be around 73-74% now since the fourth quarter is the big one.
36.5% of UK homes were OTA ONLY. That number is falling as satellite
is growing but the number of homes with OTA DTV is growing. In the
third quarter of 2008 they grew by 2.1%.

http://www.ofcom.org.uk/research/tv/reports/dtv/dtu_2008_03/q3_2008.pdf

There are differences with the US. UK OTA DTV users have been buying
into OTA long before the end of their transition. They have been
buying into OTA DTV from the beginning and at an ever increasing rate.
They are doing so because the service is seen as a very good deal that
works well.

In the US buyers are buying subsidized and crippled receivers under
the threat of a deadline. They are buying receivers because they have
to or because they can't pass up a subsidized deal that cost them
little. The question is how many will actually use these minimal
receivers and FOR HOW LONG. How many who have problems with reception
will do whatever to get decent reception and how many will be put off
by any problem with reception and give up.

Bob Miller



On Sun, Jan 25, 2009 at 6:32 PM, Manfredi, Albert E
<albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> Craig Birkmaier wrote:
>
>>>> That's 1.5 million more DTV boxes than the number of
>>>> iPods Apple sold in the LAST QUARTER...
>
>> Just one example. Total sales of cell phones in units is MUCH
>> higher. Even the highly saturated market for DVD players is
>> huge by comparison.
>>
>> I was just trying to calibrate these numbers in CE terms. And
>> remember, this is a one time market that is being fueld by
>> government subsidies.
>
> Yes, I know you were trying to calibrate the number, but you chose two
> not-so-good comparisons.
>
> First off, as the article stated, that 24M figure was not for the entire
> year. The first quarter was essentially a bust, due to supplier
> problems. And sales ramped up dramatically after that.
>
> Secondly, you are comparing the STB to two "fashion accessories." Cell
> phones and iPods are throw-away devices. You have to expect a large
> turn-over every year, as people replace the older not-so-cool model. For
> instance, now you need touch screen and, preferably, virtual keyboards
> on the touch screen. So you have to expect people who already have
> perfectly good cell phones to be itching for a new one.
>
> And sure, I totally agree that the coupon box market is short duration.
> I've always said it would be. And I also predicted that as the ATSC
> standard is updated, a good example now being M/H, there will be more
> opportunities for similar short-term STB sales, because people will more
> readily buy an STB than a whole new TV set. If priced right, of course!
>
>> When viewed as a percentage of the market, the UK has sold a
>> far higher percentage of Freevew boxes.
>
> No question about that. I think the UK has 62 percent of households
> using OTA (I'll bet Freesat will change that number quickly, though).
> Australia and Italy come in at about 75 percent. Not sure where France
> is, but I'll bet it's in that 75 percent neighborhood too.
>
> So obviously, as a percentage of households, they will sell more STBs.
> But to the CE vendor, what counts is his actual sales, and 24M is a very
> good number for any TV APPLIANCE, if not for a fashion accessory.
>
> Bert
>
>
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References:
- [opendtv] Re: DTV Delay Bill Introduced
  - From: Manfredi, Albert E
[opendtv] Re: DTV Delay Bill Introduced

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