[opendtv] Re: News: LTE Tempts With Advanced Services
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 12 Jun 2012 08:37:35 -0400
At 2:50 PM -0500 6/11/12, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
I guess your reading comprehension skills haven't improved, then.
My response was fourfold: one was to explain what this whole LTE
switch (apparently) *actually* consisted of a switch from broadcast
to unicast (and of course IP multicast is part of that options
package) primarily. The second aspect was to explain why this is
already available today to broadcasters and congloms, via existing
ISPs and WISPs, without having to go to any trouble installing
anything new of their own. The third was to say that the majority of
OTA broadcasters would go out of business, if this change happened.
And the fourth was to say that mobile devices especially benefit
from on-demand content, because people on the go are not likely to
be watching on a broadcaster-determined schedule.
1.Broadcast LTE DOES NOT require a switch from broadcast to unicast.
The vast majority of "broadcast spectrum" will continue to be used
for BROADCASTING. While it is certainly feasible for broadcasters to
implement two way LTE, as you point out, this will not be necessary
since devices will ALSO have access to telco two-way LTE services.
2. While you are correct that broadcasters can leverage wireless data
services as they do today - for example for the return path - the
cost of telco wireless bits is now, and will continue to be,
prohibitive for consumption of broadcast TV programming. Watching a
single sporting event over the telco wireless network could easily
consume an entire month's data plan.
3. This is pure speculation. What is far more likely to happen is
that marginal broadcasters will choose to return their spectrum and
choose instead to lease bits from the remaining broadcasters, or a
broadcast utility, which is the logical way to manage the Broadcast
LTE spectrum. Furthermore, such a utility will create a marketplace
for broadcast bits that will be open to new innovative apps. Bottom
line, we are talking about an expansion of services, not contraction.
4. No doubt, demand based services will be a significant factor. But
MANY apps will take advantage of local storage to continuously update
the data that the app serves. This content will be available ON
DEMAND, whether the device has access to the LTE network OR NOT. And
many apps will be designed to download content to devices during off
hours when bits are plentiful and cheap - this can include video,
audio, newspapers, magazines, and stuff yet to be invented.
The reality is that there will continue to be a large audience
for Prime Time TV,
The "reality" is that this prime time audience can continue to
exist, with or without a switch to IP unicast/multicast over LTE, or
over anything else you can dream up. The congloms get to decide, no
matter what infrastructure you have, when to first release any
material, and whether to release it as FOTA *at all*. And the
congloms are already today deciding just how much, and when, to make
their content available over the IP unicast ISPs. So bottom line,
it's all up to them anyway. A switch to LTE, IMO, fundamentally
changes nothing.
Sorry, but the Faustian bargain is that broadcasters get their
spectrum in return for providing a service. Free 9advertiser
supported) TV is not going away. I absolutely AGREE that switching to
LTE will change nothing with respect to availability of the TV
content that the congloms have delivered for decades. What will
change is all the new services that will be enabled by the switch in
infrastructure, ESPECIALLY the ability to deliver all of this to
mobile devices.
I just posted a story that talks about the huge increase in
viewing during prime time on tablets. Guess what - these tablets
will be able to receive LTE broadcasts in your home, or when you
are mobile.
Tablets can receive TV-via-ISP content via WiFi at home, or they
receive it also via 3G/4G TV telco services (the Kindle Fire doesn't
have 3G/4G at this time), or they COULD also receive it via ATSC and
ATSC MH. There's still no reason for any switch.
These devices will NEVER support ATSC or ATSC MH. The die is already
cast. The new iPAD is a 4G LTE device. This is where everyone is
headed, INCLUDING the ATSC's next standard.
Tailgate parties can either be served by ATSC and ATSC MH, or they
can be served by 3G/4G TV service via your telco, or they can be
served by WiFi hotspots if the broadcasters agree to have their
stuff streamed. You do not need any special new LTE TV-only new
infrastructure for any of this. I'm repeating this same thing over
and over.
Yes, people are using ATSC for this today. The switch to LTE will
enable millions of new screens. It will no longer be necessary (but
it will still be possible) to set up a generator or power inverter to
use a panel TV with an ATSC tuner. And as mentioned before, it will
be cost prohibitive to use telco 4G to stream hours of content.
A switch to TV-only LTE won't change that. A switch to TV-only LTE
will immediately put most broadcasters out of business (what would
they have left to do?), and it won't change what the congloms think
about FOTA distribution. If FOTA is declining, and I'm hardly
convinced it is, then it can be revived easily by the owners of
content. Not by a change to modulation.
This is absurd Bert. They will still be able to do everything they do
today. Many marginal broadcasters will be able to take the money they
get for returning spectrum and REDUCE operating costs by leasing
space in the LTE Broadcast spectrum. Yes some will go away because
they have little reason to exist today. But other innovators will
find profitable uses for broadcast LTE bits.
That's not convincing.
Maybe this is: Verizon ran a double data promotion which ended June 5th
Normal Offer: 2GB/mo for $30 After Promo: 4GB/mo for $30
Normal Offer: 5GB/mo for $50 After Promo: 10GB/mo for $50
Normal Offer: 10GB/mo for $80 After Promo: 20GB/mo for $80
Let's assume a very limited bit rate of 1 Mbps for a 360P stream
(this is far below what is used for an SD stream with ATSC today).
This requires 450 MB per hour. That's less than 5 hours of viewing
for the $30 2 GB per month plan.
Perhaps these tariffs will come down over time.
No compare them with FREE.
For one thing, the very few remaining broadcasters that provide this
supposed LTE TV infrastructure can easily become just as greedy as
the telcos (why wouldn't they?), and for another, what the telcos
charge for TV viewing would be totally up to negotiation. This more
expensive utility will behave just like another ISP or another MVPD.
It's so easily predictable that it hurts.
You are partly correct.
1. Broadcasters MUST provide at least one service in the free and
clear. This is likely to be comparable to what they are delivering
today via ATSC - let's be generous and say they can deliver the same
quality of service at 1/2 the bit rate using h.264. How long would
your monthly data allocation last if you tried to watch an 8 Mbps
streaming service via telco unicast?
2. Consumers have already demonstrated that they are not interested
in ANOTHER monthly subscription for mobile TV services. Broadcasters
may be able to offer some content on a paid demand basis, but this is
not going to be a major money maker.
3. The congloms and MVPDs have already formulated their plan for the
future. You will need an MVPD subscription to access most of their
content via BOTH wired and wireless data services. So while some
local broadcasters may choose to retire, the entire menu of content
available to MVPD subscribers may be come available via secured LTE
broadcast. It would not surprise me if broadcasters work out a deal
where the MVPDs charge a few bucks a month for access to content via
the wired Internet and Broadcast LTE. So an LTE broadcaster might
look forward to $1.50 a month per MVPD subscriber as a second revenue
stream (some are already getting a buck a month now from retrans
consent).
Well, then, forget about wasting spectral efficiency on LTE!! Wow.
What an easy solution to this problem. If you don't need the 2-way
feature, go to something optimized for broadcast. Stick with ATSC,
or if anything, switch to DVB-T2. At least then, you won't cut off
the OTA broadcast industry at the knees.
The broadcasters ALREADY cut off their knees with ATSC. Where's the
OTA audience?
You represent less than 10% of the U.S. population as an MVPD avoider.
The real issue here is how to create a service that will be used by
nearly everyone...
Like broadcast radio.
Regards
Craig
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