[opendtv] Re: Pete Deutschman: Linear TV dips below half of US viewers
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sat, 29 Aug 2015 18:19:17 -0400
On Aug 28, 2015, at 9:00 PM, Manfredi, Albert E
<albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
This state of affairs is created by legacy technologies. As ad buyers
understand that people are dropping the old linear streams, now that they
have broadband available to them, and once ad buyers get that ads associated
with online on demand delivery are more effective than ads in linear streams,
the idea that the linear distribution gets some sort of special treatment
will disappear. You might be a luddite, but more than half the country has
moved on, Craig.
At most, 23% of all TV is streamed, and this includes linear streams like
WWITV, Watch ESPN, CBS All Access, Sling, and many others.
More than 80% of all U.S homes subscribe to a bundle of linear TV channels.
Linear distribution has, and will continue to get special treatment. the
Olympics, the Super Bowl, hundreds of pro and college football games. That's
where the big money is. Episodic shows are very important because they have
good shelf life and do well in syndication, and now for SVOD bundles.
Live linear is not going away. And at least for now, delivering this content
over the Internet is still experiencing many issues when the audiences get
large. As with any other Internet growing pain, smart people and large
investments will knock down the roadblocks.
I've proved it to you. Wasteful **if* you are trying to deploy 2-way service.
Not wasteful if you *cannot* deploy a 2-way service. One-way broadcast nets
were the first to emerge for a reason, Craig. It's NOT because people prefer
to watch TV by appointment. It is because technology wouldn't permit anything
else, yet, ca. 1920s.
Blah blah blah...
Even you admit broadcasting is not going away in this decade, probably 2-3.
And the MVPD infrastructure is still doing the heavy lifting. The percentages
will keep changing, but live linear will still attract huge audiences for...
ever.
Wrong again. Go back and see whether any article you posted said any such
thing. They all attribute the problems to specific bottlenecks, and not a
single one has waved its arms as you do. Of course there will be specific
bottlenecks initially, as these things get sorted out. Have we seen a torrent
of complaints about Netflix service? Not recently. Or Hulu?
Get real.
I just posted several articles that confirm this. How about the one that noted
that current Internet protocols favor VOD versus large numbers of viewers
trying to access the same live stream.
"Even though it's a VOD file, it behaves like a live show because people go
in and watch it at the same time," Wheaton said. "It's not inconceivable that
in four to five years, the majority of television is actually watched over an
IP-delivered network."
Sound like Akamai does not believe that the majority of TV is
watch on demand over IP networks today...and they know what they
are talking about.
First of all, it doesn't matter what Akamai might or might not believe about
how TV is viewed these days. Facts are facts.
Right. And they know the facts as they are one of the industry leaders.
More than half of TV is being viewed non-linear.
Not even close.
Secondly, where, in that quote, do you see Akamai or anyone else saying this
is an impossible obstacle, Craig?
Nothing is impossible Bert. The Akamai article talked about what will be
necessary to get past the current bottlenecks.
What is impossible is for more than half of all the people watching TV to
access that programming via the Internet, TODAY..especially during peak demand
periods.
We've been over this many times, Craig. No one cares.
I do.
Regards
Craig
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