[AR] Re: ... Coronavirus
- From: Norman Yarvin <yarvin@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sun, 22 Mar 2020 15:55:52 -0400
On Sun, Mar 22, 2020 at 10:33:28AM -0700, Craig Remillard wrote:
Herd immunity is every country's strategy, UK was just more honest about it
than others. Containment was a viable strategy in Wuhan when cases were
localized, but I suspect even there they will be seeing a second wave very
soon as they gradually restart the economy.
It's not Singapore's strategy, nor South Korea's. They're not even
locking the whole place down, like China did; they're relying on
widespread testing (the South Koreans pioneered the drive-through
testing sites that we're now starting to use), and mass tracking and
tracing via cell phones (which China is also doing), plus of course
universal mask-wearing. It seems to be working, too. (One indeed
can't trust statistics from countries like China where the government
controls the press, but Singapore and South Korea are pretty free.)
The several days of
asymptomatic contagiousness is just really tough to get around.
While there is asymptomatic contagiousness, it seems to account for
less transmission than is required for exponential growth. People who
are coughing up a storm are still by far the most contagious. Also,
asymptomatic cases can be detected by testing and quarantined, as can
their contacts, who might be too early in the disease to test
positive.
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