On 3/19/2020 7:32 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
For herd immunity, you only need 1-(1/R0) of the population to have had
it, which means you'd need an R0 of 10 to infect 90% of the population.
R0 estimates for COVID-19 range from 1.5 - 3.0, so 35-55% of the
population, not 90%.
And that's for doing absolutely nothing. Long-term, public health
measures like contact tracing and behavioral changes like more
handwashing will knock R0 down from that initial 1.5-3.0 range. If it
goes below 1.0, and the virus is reduced to sporadic outbreaks without
needing herd immunity.
90% of the human population being infected is an innumerate paranoid
fantasy, and we don't need those right now.
John Schilling
Anthony:
It will undoubtedly pass but not until about 90% of the human population has had it and survived (herd immunity) or until a similar fraction has had some combination of having had it or had a vaccination.
Given pressure, the usual 18 months to get a safe vaccine might be reduced to 15 months; assuming 6 months more to vaccinate everyone who hasn’t had it, I get an optimistic 18 months before this is over, locally.
When the Chinese back off of their current quarantine, look for a second wave of infections to follow: less than 1% of the Chinese population is now immune from having had it and survived.
Bill
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 7:18 PM Anthony Cesaroni <anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
Next year. This will pass.
Anthony J. Cesaroni
President/CEO
Cesaroni Technology/Cesaroni Aerospace
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March 19, 2020
RELEASE 20-030
*March 19 Administrator Statement on Agency Response to Coronavirus*
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