[AR] Re: SSTO fuels (was Re: SSTO)
- From: "John Stoffel" <john@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2018 11:05:01 -0500
"Troy" == Troy Prideaux <troy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> writes:
Markets for lower-cost transportation can be forced, if you have deep pockets
(or some other way to stay solvent) to survive a few years of lag while the
market catches up to your newly available lower-cost capability.
Troy> Don't forget though (with regards to investment) that capital
Troy> has a cost and that cost needs to be serviced.
I'm not sure I agree with this. Plenty of businesses have been
started with lots of money thrown at them which subsequently go
bankrupt. The capital is then lost to the investors, right?
I'm thinking the Railboard boom in England and the US, but it's
probably not a good example. But the idea in my head is that lots of
people made money doing this, but lots and lots of people also LOST
money doing this. But the state of the art got advanced by both.
Troy> What's more, higher risk generally requires a forecasting of
Troy> higher returns for an investment to make prudent sense. So there
Troy> are very real constraints on how much someone can force
Troy> "lower-cost" transportation without some radical advancement in
Troy> technology or business operation efficiency, unless that someone
Troy> is willing to donate some capital to the cause.
Remember, the rational investor is a myth, very very very few people
can make consistently rational decisions over the long term, emotions
get into the mix and throw things into a mess. Just look at how many
people rode their stock options up, up, up and then down, down, down,
up, down down down up ... as their company slowly imploded. Been
there, done that.
John
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