[AR] Re: SSTO fuels (was Re: SSTO)
- From: "John Stoffel" <john@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2018 11:08:31 -0500
"William" == William Claybaugh <wclaybaugh2@xxxxxxxxx> writes:
William> Neither SoaceX nor Blue Origin have ever generated an annual profit.
Shall we talk the airline industry as well then? I seem to recall
that over the long term, airlines have been a net loss to investors,
with occasional periods of sustained profitibility. Just look at the
gyrations of the Italian government to save Alitalia from bankruptcy.
William> Mr. Bezos is clear that he does not expect a return on his
William> investment; Mr. Musk has relied on the pumping of valuations
William> caused by quantitative easing to create wealth to date;
William> Mr. Branson’s investors are calculably underwater.
Yup, rational investors are rather thinner on the ground than assumed
by some schools of economics...
William> The seeking of a return on investment has not been playing lately in
space
William> investment....
Has ULA done well? Just curious, no idea....
William> On Wed, Feb 14, 2018 at 7:41 PM Troy Prideaux
<troy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
William> wrote:
Markets for lower-cost transportation can be forced, if you have deep
William> pockets
(or some other way to stay solvent) to survive a few years of lag while
William> the
market catches up to your newly available lower-cost capability.
William> Don't forget though (with regards to investment) that capital has
a cost
William> and that cost needs to be serviced. What's more, higher risk
generally
William> requires a forecasting of higher returns for an investment to make
prudent
William> sense. So there are very real constraints on how much someone can
force
William> "lower-cost" transportation without some radical advancement in
technology
William> or business operation efficiency, unless that someone is willing
to donate
William> some capital to the cause.
William> Troy
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