[AR] Re: Future Exploration Policy (was Re: Re: Congrats SpaceX
- From: Henry Spencer <hspencer@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: Arocket List <arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 7 Feb 2018 22:16:46 -0500 (EST)
On Wed, 7 Feb 2018, Paul Mueller wrote:
It sure seems that heavy-lift customers will be beating a path to Elon's
door...
The question is, just how many of them are there? With money in their
hands, that is, not just drawings and dreams.
Right now, probably not very many, because there's no *point* in getting
money together when there's nowhere to spend it. There is generally a
very high payoff for getting your business case to close with existing
rockets!
Note also that Delta IV Heavy has had very few customers. It's expensive,
yeah, but the payloads usually cost more than the launches, so the fact
that D-IVHs haven't been darkening the skies is still significant. Ditto
the decision to defer (indefinitely, as it turned out) Atlas V Heavy, even
at a time when the EELV guys were still optimistic about finding
commercial customers.
It will take time for a substantial heavylift market to develop.
Henry
Other related posts: