[AR] Re: Future Exploration Policy (was Re: Re: Congrats SpaceX

  • From: Henry Vanderbilt <hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Fri, 9 Feb 2018 09:34:45 -0700

Interesting point - yes, Redstone Arsenal in Huntsville and its resident Army Ballistic Missile Agency, AKA Von Braun's rocket team, were folded into NASA back at NASA's start in 1958.

I can see the Army wanting the land and some of the buildings and facilities back.

But if the current MSFC management structure is also part of the package, the Army would be wise to refuse. Run away!

What the US Army gave up back in 1958 was a functioning highly efficient heavy rocket development team. What they'd be getting back would be the 60-years distant bureaucratized descendant, vastly bloated and utterly dysfunctional. The Army's got enough problems already.

No, I still think the only practical thing to do with the current MSFC management structure is send them to the land of NOD. Cut most of their funding and all of their operational responsibilities and task them with reviewing each other's paperwork. Provide plenty of opportunities for any remaining talent with initiative to go elsewhere and be productive, then let the rest while away the time till retirement.

My bottom line: The current MSFC management structure should not be allowed near ANY task that might be important to accomplish in finite time for finite money.

Henry V


On 2/8/2018 10:33 PM, Jonathan Goff wrote:

Henry,

Re: your response to point #2, I had a friend a few years back who made a similar suggestion (in a rather pithy way). To paraphrase: "In order to help our country win an important Cold War battle, the Army gave up it's crown jewels (Redstone Arsenal) to NASA. The Cold War is over now, so NASA should give it back." His suggestion was to take the launcher part of MSFC and explicitly give it back to the military for something like missile defense work or prompt global strike. Even if they took most of their share of NASA's budget with them when they left, at least they'd take away the rot that is NASA in-house launch vehicle development programs.

~Jon

On Thu, Feb 8, 2018 at 1:46 PM, Henry Vanderbilt <hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> wrote:

    On 2/8/2018 5:51 AM, Bill Bruner wrote:

        The wild card here is the President's strong desire to return to
        the Moon sooner, rather than later.  The /only/ way to do that
        at the beginning of the second term (with substantial progress
        in the first) is with FH.


    Yes - my speculations on what could be achieved with an FH booster
    and existing LH2 engines are very much made in that context.

        To modify Henry V.'s grand bargain, here is how the
        Administration can cut this Gordian knot:

        1. Immediately make the policy decision to return to the Moon
        permanently, starting with a FH centric architecture, by the
        early 20s.


    Still in violent agreement.  Make clear of course that all are
    welcome to bid for slices of the transport and systems needs as they
    evolve over time, but that near-term low-risk demonstrated
    capability will always outweigh elegant viewgraphs.

        2. Transition from SLS at Marshall to FH-compatible lunar lander
        and DSG contracts, while significantly expanding the nuclear
        thermal propulsion work they're already doing there
        
<https://www.nasa.gov/centers/marshall/news/news/releases/2017/nasa-contracts-with-bwxt-nuclear-energy-to-advance-nuclear-thermal-propulsion-technology.html
        
<https://www.nasa.gov/centers/marshall/news/news/releases/2017/nasa-contracts-with-bwxt-nuclear-energy-to-advance-nuclear-thermal-propulsion-technology.html>>.
        The strategic defense work is coming, but the architecture is
        yet undefined, so it is probably too early to use it as part of
        this deal - plus any new MDA work would be at SMDC, not
        Marshall  - resulting in politically problematic layoffs at MSFC.


    Fundamental disagreement, in that in my estimation, asking current
    MSFC management to accomplish anything vital to a program dooms that
    program.  All the tea leaves point to their having become terminally
    unsalvageably bureaucratically dysfunctional at this point.  They've
    spent decades now learning how to spend billions per year
    "developing" nothing usefully flyable.  The only practical thing to
    do with them is NOD them out and move on.

    Yes, it will involve some serious political heavy lifting.  No, the
    previous Administration's failed attempt to do so does not prove it
    impossible - that White House never made a serious attempt at
    deal-making, simply sent Congress a proposal that Congress
    predictably rejected and counter-attacked, then shrugged and moved
    on to things they cared more about.

    Money for tech employment in a Congressional district is fungible -
    the amount matters more than the exact path.

    The new money coming via SMDC rather than MSFC is a feature, not a
    bug, in that it supports lateral transfer of competent local
    white-collar workforce away from the terminally dysfunctional
    management structure.

    And the time-phasing of the transition can be horse-traded to
    minimize local economic disruption - at some cost in program
    efficiency, yes, but that sort of thing is inevitable in
    Congressional funding politics.


        3. Work with the Hill and industry to come up with an
        intentional plan to transition Station to the private sector by
        the end of the second term rather than "cancelling" it.


    Everything Takes Longer & Costs More.  I'm not sure that Station
    will be ready for the private sector that soon - if ever.

    Rather, encourage co-orbital private sector development, till
    eventually the most practical thing to do with Station is turn it
    into a museum.

    Also, the NASA Station establishment is demonstrably less
    dysfunctional than MSFC - they're actually flying something for
    their $4G/year - but not hugely so.  And they're politically more
    powerful.  Perhaps best to leave them as-is, both to avoid
    unnecessary additional political heavy lifting, and to allow the new
    deep-space initiative to be run by a new and far more lean & dynamic
    organization.

        Within the current NASA topline, this would a) get us back to
        the Moon sooner b) free up SLS and Station money to do something
        useful c) build a gateway to the rest of the Solar System and d)
        put us on a pathway to a serious interplanetary drive.


    Very little difference in our overall vectors here...

    Henry V


        On Wed, Feb 7, 2018 at 9:22 PM, Henry Vanderbilt
        <hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
        <mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
        <mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>> wrote:

             On 2/7/2018 8:16 PM, Henry Spencer wrote:

                 It will take time for a substantial heavylift market to
        develop.


             Time, or a high-volume government customer.  Say, a serious
        human
             deep-space exploration program that actually wanted to
        accomplish
             something interesting for the ~$4G/year that's the likely max
             politically-practical funding.

             Henry V







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