The wild card here is the President's strong desire to return to the Moon
sooner, rather than later. The *only* way to do that at the beginning of
the second term (with substantial progress in the first) is with FH.
To modify Henry V.'s grand bargain, here is how the Administration can cut
this Gordian knot:
1. Immediately make the policy decision to return to the Moon permanently,
starting with a FH centric architecture, by the early 20s.
2. Transition from SLS at Marshall to FH-compatible lunar lander and DSG
contracts, while significantly expanding the nuclear thermal propulsion
work they're already doing there
<https://www.nasa.gov/centers/marshall/news/news/releases/2017/nasa-contracts-with-bwxt-nuclear-energy-to-advance-nuclear-thermal-propulsion-technology.html>.
The strategic defense work is coming, but the architecture is yet
undefined, so it is probably too early to use it as part of this deal -
plus any new MDA work would be at SMDC, not Marshall - resulting in
politically problematic layoffs at MSFC.
3. Work with the Hill and industry to come up with an intentional plan to
transition Station to the private sector by the end of the second term
rather than "cancelling" it.
Within the current NASA topline, this would a) get us back to the Moon
sooner b) free up SLS and Station money to do something useful c) build a
gateway to the rest of the Solar System and d) put us on a pathway to a
serious interplanetary drive.
Bill Bruner
New Frontier Aerospace
bill@xxxxxxxxxx
925-456-4553
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On Wed, Feb 7, 2018 at 9:22 PM, Henry Vanderbilt <hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
wrote:
On 2/7/2018 8:16 PM, Henry Spencer wrote:
It will take time for a substantial heavylift market to develop.
Time, or a high-volume government customer. Say, a serious human
deep-space exploration program that actually wanted to accomplish something
interesting for the ~$4G/year that's the likely max politically-practical
funding.
Henry V