[opendtv] Re: STB hunting
- From: Tom Barry <trbarry@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2006 20:41:43 -0500
I also think it likely that many NTSC homes after the cutoff will
purchase a new entry level integrated TV, and then watch only whichever
channels happen to work with that TV and their existing antenna.
- Tom
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
> At 6:43 PM -0500 1/22/06, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
>
>>First of all, the market for OTA boxes is roughly as big
>>as the market for DBS. About 20 percent of households.
>>And secondly, I am baffled by the traction negativism
>>seems to get. You weren't sounding quite so negative when
>>you first tried this little guy. Why the change of heart?
>
>
> Some bad assumptions here Bert.
>
> First, the number of DBS subscribers in the U.S. is now in excess of
> 27 million, or nearly 25% of all U.S. homes.
>
> Second, it is simply illogical and wrong to assume that every U.S.
> home that now receives NTSC broadcasts is a potential customer for an
> ATSC receiver. Why?
>
> 1. The number of U.S. homes that still rely exclusively on the NTSC
> service is unknown, or at least the numbers that are quoted from
> different studies are conflicting. Your assumption is based on 20% of
> U.S. homes using the service. This MAY be true, however, the number
> is influenced by home that still have one or more TVs that can
> receive NTSC broadcasts in addition to any multi-channel service to
> which the home subscribes. Based on all of the available reports, one
> would have to conclude that at least 5% of the 20% subscribe to a
> multi-channel service today.
>
> 2. People may still use an ATSC receiver on occasion, but it is
> unlikely that they will invest in an ATSC receiver to keep an old set
> working after the cut-off. I can't quantify this exactly, but it is
> probably in the range of 15-30% of U.S. homes that now still use the
> NTSC service on occasion.
>
> 3. When (if?) a family actually faces the reality that they will no
> longer be able to receive Free NTSC broadcasts, they will have
> options, one of which is to buy an ATSC receiver. If and when this
> day comes, you can bet your last dollar that the DBS and cable
> companies will be putting together low cost packages to attract the
> holdouts. Again, it is not possible to predict the exact percentages,
> but it would be fair to say that a significant number of homes will
> elect to switch to a multi-channel service, not ATSC.
>
> 4. A sizable percent of the homes included in the NTSC only category
> do not watch TV at all, or only on rare occasions - these homes will
> not buy an ATSC STB.
>
> 5. By the time the NTSC service is turned off, there will be other
> competitive options, centered around new IPTV services and TV
> programming delivered via the Internet. It is quite feasible that an
> Intel powered media center will cost no more than an ATSC receiver by
> the time this happens. More important, many of the homes that do not
> subscribe to a multi-channel service are young, lower income
> demographics who are growing up with the Internet, and will be more
> likely to choose a solution that does not involve either OTA
> broadcasts or subscription to a multi-channel service.
>
> Bottom line, I do not see the market for ATSC STBs ever reaching 10%
> of U.S. homes, and more likely it will be below 5%. Note that this
> assumes no change in the U.S. broadcast business model.
>
> Regards
> Craig
>
>
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