Uwe:
Like the German data, the South Korean data is showing about a 25%
infection rate among those tested.
Since the Chinese data is showing near 100% infection among those tested,
it follows that the Chinese death rate estimates are high by at least a
factor of four.
Perhaps the US data will approach the 25% level once sufficient testing is
in place....
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 3:07 PM Uwe Klein <uwe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Am 20.03.2020 um 21:20 schrieb David Summers:
While the infection rate may be unknown, the death rate is easier to
know. Barring a coverup, the numbers seem right.
Thing I haven't really tried to get a grip on:
You do a number of tests ( with cause for testing assumed
i.e. not shotgun style testing. )
from this you get a certain number of positives : infected.
for the US from official numbers 50+k tests with ~16k infected found or
~30% positive.
for Germany I could only find 35k in the last week for the last weeks
delta of ~9k positives. 25% ? ~ same domain.
( haven't looked anywhere else.)
When is a point of overtesting reached?
What positives rate should be aimed for to get good coverage?
( obviously testing everybody and his/her hamster is out of the question
at the moment // for ever?
I'd go for shotgun antibody testing later on to get expanded information
including (silent, unnoticed) spread )
Uwe