Bill,
I don’t think John was intentionally being rude. Perhaps misunderstanding?
Anthony J. Cesaroni
President/CEO
Cesaroni Technology/Cesaroni Aerospace
<http://www.cesaronitech.com/> http://www.cesaronitech.com/
(941) 360-3100 x101 Sarasota
(905) 887-2370 x222 Toronto
From: arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> On Behalf Of
William Claybaugh
Sent: Friday, March 20, 2020 7:09 PM
To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [AR] Re: FW: [NASA HQ News] March 19 Administrator Statement on Agency
Response to Coronavirus
Good points, John, you evidently have access to better data than I have seen.
There is, however, no reason for that that last which is simply rude.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 5:01 PM John Schilling <john.schilling@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:john.schilling@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > wrote:
On 3/19/2020 7:32 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
For herd immunity, you only need 1-(1/R0) of the population to have had it,
which means you'd need an R0 of 10 to infect 90% of the population. R0
estimates for COVID-19 range from 1.5 - 3.0, so 35-55% of the population, not
90%.
And that's for doing absolutely nothing. Long-term, public health measures
like contact tracing and behavioral changes like more handwashing will knock R0
down from that initial 1.5-3.0 range. If it goes below 1.0, and the virus is
reduced to sporadic outbreaks without needing herd immunity.
90% of the human population being infected is an innumerate paranoid fantasy,
and we don't need those right now.
John Schilling
Anthony:
It will undoubtedly pass but not until about 90% of the human population has
had it and survived (herd immunity) or until a similar fraction has had some
combination of having had it or had a vaccination.
Given pressure, the usual 18 months to get a safe vaccine might be reduced to
15 months; assuming 6 months more to vaccinate everyone who hasn’t had it, I
get an optimistic 18 months before this is over, locally.
When the Chinese back off of their current quarantine, look for a second wave
of infections to follow: less than 1% of the Chinese population is now immune
from having had it and survived.
Bill
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 7:18 PM Anthony Cesaroni <anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx> > wrote:
Next year. This will pass.
Anthony J. Cesaroni
President/CEO
Cesaroni Technology/Cesaroni Aerospace
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/www.cesaronitech.com/__;!!LIr3w8kk_Xxm!5yiCjInjp8q0cKofOb6VvxMUWMTcHVRCGwzyWf433sKIjag2wKBewNFi30PsGCAMRauR6dXccg$>
http://www.cesaronitech.com/
(941) 360-3100 x101 Sarasota
(905) 887-2370 x222 Toronto
From: Hqnews <hqnews-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:hqnews-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > On Behalf Of NASA News Releases
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 7:53 PM
To: hqnews@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:hqnews@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [NASA HQ News] March 19 Administrator Statement on Agency Response to
Coronavirus
March 19, 2020
RELEASE 20-030
March 19 Administrator Statement on Agency Response to Coronavirus
The following is a statement from NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine:
“NASA leadership is determined to make the health and safety of its workforce
its top priority as we navigate the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation. To that
end, the agency’s Michoud Assembly Facility and Stennis Space Center are moving
to Stage 4 of the NASA Response Framework
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/nasapeople.nasa.gov/coronavirus/nasa_response_framework.pdf__;!!LIr3w8kk_Xxm!5yiCjInjp8q0cKofOb6VvxMUWMTcHVRCGwzyWf433sKIjag2wKBewNFi30PsGCAMRaszeieK2w$>
, effective Friday, March 20.
“The change at Stennis was made due to the rising number of COVID-19 cases in
the community around the center, the number of self-isolation cases within our
workforce there, and one confirmed case among our Stennis team. While there
are no confirmed cases at Michoud, the facility is moving to Stage 4 due to the
rising number of COVID-19 cases in the local area, in accordance with local and
federal guidelines.
“Mandatory telework is in effect for NASA personnel at both facilities until
further notice. Additionally, all travel is suspended. These measures are being
taken to help slow the transmission of COVID-19 and protect our communities.
“Access to Stennis and Michoud will be limited to personnel required to
maintain the safety and security of the center, as approved by agency
leadership and the resident agencies. All previously approved exceptions for
onsite work are rescinded and new approvals will be required in order to gain
access to the center.
“NASA will temporarily suspend production and testing of Space Launch System
and Orion hardware. The NASA and contractors teams will complete an orderly
shutdown that puts all hardware in a safe condition until work can resume. Once
this is complete, personnel allowed onsite will be limited to those needed to
protect life and critical infrastructure.
“We realize there will be impacts to NASA missions, but as our teams work to
analyze the full picture and reduce risks we understand that our top priority
is the health and safety of the NASA workforce.
“I ask all members of the NASA workforce to stay in close contact with your
supervisor and check the NASA People
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/nasapeople.nasa.gov/coronavirus/__;!!LIr3w8kk_Xxm!5yiCjInjp8q0cKofOb6VvxMUWMTcHVRCGwzyWf433sKIjag2wKBewNFi30PsGCAMRauMcIVcFQ$>
website regularly for updates. Also, in these difficult times, do not
hesitate to reach out to the NASA Employee Assistance Program
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.nasa.gov/offices/ochmo/divisions/health_medsys/eap_info.html__;!!LIr3w8kk_Xxm!5yiCjInjp8q0cKofOb6VvxMUWMTcHVRCGwzyWf433sKIjag2wKBewNFi30PsGCAMRavZNH1vRA$>
, if needed.
“I will continue to say, so none of us forget – there is no team better
prepared for doing hard things. Take care of yourself, your family, and your
NASA team.”
-end-
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