[AR] Re: FW: [NASA HQ News] March 19 Administrator Statement on Agency Response to Coronavirus

  • From: Uwe Klein <uwe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Fri, 20 Mar 2020 22:06:46 +0100

Am 20.03.2020 um 21:20 schrieb David Summers:

While the infection rate may be unknown, the death rate is easier to
know. Barring a coverup, the numbers seem right.


Thing I haven't really tried to get a grip on:

You do a number of tests ( with cause for testing assumed
i.e. not shotgun style testing. )
from this you get a certain number of positives : infected.

for the US from official numbers 50+k tests with ~16k infected found or ~30% positive.
for Germany I could only find 35k in the last week for the last weeks delta of ~9k positives. 25% ? ~ same domain.
( haven't looked anywhere else.)

When is a point of overtesting reached?
What positives rate should be aimed for to get good coverage?

( obviously testing everybody and his/her hamster is out of the question at the moment // for ever?
I'd go for shotgun antibody testing later on to get expanded information including (silent, unnoticed) spread )


Uwe

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