Observation: One of the largest population country with the lowest
infection rate is India - Over a billion people with only 244 infected 5
deaths 20 received. Why?
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On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 12:48 AM Uwe Klein <uwe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Am 20.03.2020 um 03:32 schrieb William Claybaugh:
Anthony:locally.
It will undoubtedly pass but not until about 90% of the human population
has had it and survived (herd immunity) or until a similar fraction has
had some combination of having had it or had a vaccination.
Given pressure, the usual 18 months to get a safe vaccine might be
reduced to 15 months; assuming 6 months more to vaccinate everyone who
hasn’t had it, I get an optimistic 18 months before this is over,
When the Chinese back off of their current quarantine, look for a second
wave of infections to follow: less than 1% of the Chinese population is
now immune from having had it and survived.
The trick is to not allow too much new infections.
Italy ( and China,) shows that overflowing the health system is deadly.
Unfortunately measures will probably applied in a binary fashion.
Either it is full quarantine or none.
To some varying degree per country/region the measures are late.
I do wonder how (trying to) remove medical resources from other
nations by the US will be judged in the future.
further increasing sactions vs Iran to hamper their coping
with the pandemic is prety high on the scale of assholeism
thinkable.
Uwe