What do find flawed with George Friedman’s book?
Anthony J. Cesaroni
President/CEO
Cesaroni Technology/Cesaroni Aerospace
<http://www.cesaronitech.com/> http://www.cesaronitech.com/
(941) 360-3100 x101 Sarasota
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From: arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> On Behalf Of
Anthony Cesaroni
Sent: Friday, March 20, 2020 11:11 PM
To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [AR] Re: FW: [NASA HQ News] March 19 Administrator Statement on Agency
Response to Coronavirus
I am totally impressed with your scope of reading and opinion Bill.
Thanks.
Anthony J. Cesaroni
President/CEO
Cesaroni Technology/Cesaroni Aerospace
<http://www.cesaronitech.com/> http://www.cesaronitech.com/
(941) 360-3100 x101 Sarasota
(905) 887-2370 x222 Toronto
From: arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
<arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> > On Behalf
Of William Claybaugh
Sent: Friday, March 20, 2020 11:06 PM
To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [AR] Re: FW: [NASA HQ News] March 19 Administrator Statement on Agency
Response to Coronavirus
Anthony;
I’ve read both and found them implausible.
Finding three only “cycles” in American history and projecting a future based
thereon is statistical rubbish: both the past and the future are far more
complex than that sort of cheap “thinking”.
Zelhan ignores the entirety of the 19th century British Navy control of the
seas; the US post World War Two dominance of the seas and consequent expansion
of global trade is a bit act compared to Britain’s influence over the 19th
century.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 8:48 PM Anthony Cesaroni <anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx> > wrote:
“ The Storm Before the Calm” George Friedman and “The Accidental Superpower”
Peter Zelhan. Read both starting with Friedman. These help to explain why we
are where we are and where we are going.
Anthony J. Cesaroni
President/CEO
Cesaroni Technology/Cesaroni Aerospace
<http://www.cesaronitech.com/> http://www.cesaronitech.com/
(941) 360-3100 x101 Sarasota
(905) 887-2370 x222 Toronto
From: arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
<arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> > On Behalf
Of William Claybaugh
Sent: Friday, March 20, 2020 10:26 PM
To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [AR] Re: FW: [NASA HQ News] March 19 Administrator Statement on Agency
Response to Coronavirus
Henry:
We agree even down to your comments about competence and politicians.
My only observation is that quarantine, once it reduces local R0 below one
point zero, will have to be maintained until a vaccine is available. Which—as
you observe—is not likely to be widely distributed before 18 months from now,
optimistically.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 8:15 PM Henry Vanderbilt <hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > wrote:
Bill,
R0 estimates vary all over the place. And the actual value of course is going
to vary with local customs and practices, as modified by local containment
measures. Probably futile trying to estimate R0 now; it's something you figure
out after the dust has settled.
One data point on how far this thing spreads in a given population, albeit far
from a pure one: 3700 people total on Diamond Princess, all tested, current
near-final positive count 712, for about 20% total infected.
Now, initially the spread on Diamond Princess was uncontained. Then, there was
a disorganized incompetent attempt to contain it. Then the continuing flow of
new infections scared them into getting competent. So it's definitely not any
strong indication of where herd immunity would become effective in an
uncontained spread.
I suspect it is, however, a decent approximation of the likely sequence in your
average densely populated US city with an incompetent political-hack local
government. Uncontained, then incompetently contained, then hugely scary
results, then competently contained. If only because the state and/or the Feds
step in.
Places that are well-enough run to skip the middle two steps will see a lot
fewer overall cases, I suspect.
Places that are badly enough run that they can't reach step 4 on their own are
in for a really rough ride. (NYC now is at step 3 - known infections
increasing at ~70%/day - and the Mayor is apparently not taking advice.)
A place that averages the same total 20% spread as Diamond Princess and doesn't
run out of Respiratory ICU beds should see about 200 deaths per 100,000
population. (~5% of infectees will need a ventilator, ~4 out of 5 of those
will then be saved by the ICU treatment.) A place that does run out of RICU
beds - US average is about 50 such beds per 100,000 population - could see up
to 1000 deaths per 100,000. (More, of course, if total spread ends up higher
than 20%.)
~50 beds per 100,000 of us should make it abundantly clear why containment
measures sufficient to time-spread the infections peak a LOT are very
important. (Current initiatives might in time raise that to 60 or 70 beds.
One of the major bottlenecks is years-trained personnel.) Entirely aside from
such containment measures buying time for effective acute-case treatments
(another month at best, more likely a few months) and a vaccine (likely a year
or more) to arrive.
Henry
On 3/20/2020 6:30 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
John:
After looking—again—I am not able to find the source for you assertion that R0
is between 1.5 and 3.0. From where are you getting these numbers?
Note that because some localities will not Institute quarantine, it
follows—given exponential growth of infection—that w/i no more than a few
months we will have natural experiments that accurately measure whether herd
immunity is achieved at as little as 30% infection.
Today, I remain unaware of data indicating that R0 is not comparable to
smallpox, but definitely open to new data.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 5:01 PM John Schilling <john.schilling@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:john.schilling@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > wrote:
On 3/19/2020 7:32 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
For herd immunity, you only need 1-(1/R0) of the population to have had it,
which means you'd need an R0 of 10 to infect 90% of the population. R0
estimates for COVID-19 range from 1.5 - 3.0, so 35-55% of the population, not
90%.
And that's for doing absolutely nothing. Long-term, public health measures
like contact tracing and behavioral changes like more handwashing will knock R0
down from that initial 1.5-3.0 range. If it goes below 1.0, and the virus is
reduced to sporadic outbreaks without needing herd immunity.
90% of the human population being infected is an innumerate paranoid fantasy,
and we don't need those right now.
John Schilling
Anthony:
It will undoubtedly pass but not until about 90% of the human population has
had it and survived (herd immunity) or until a similar fraction has had some
combination of having had it or had a vaccination.
Given pressure, the usual 18 months to get a safe vaccine might be reduced to
15 months; assuming 6 months more to vaccinate everyone who hasn’t had it, I
get an optimistic 18 months before this is over, locally.
When the Chinese back off of their current quarantine, look for a second wave
of infections to follow: less than 1% of the Chinese population is now immune
from having had it and survived.
Bill
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 7:18 PM Anthony Cesaroni <anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx> > wrote:
Next year. This will pass.
Anthony J. Cesaroni
President/CEO
Cesaroni Technology/Cesaroni Aerospace
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/www.cesaronitech.com/__;!!LIr3w8kk_Xxm!5yiCjInjp8q0cKofOb6VvxMUWMTcHVRCGwzyWf433sKIjag2wKBewNFi30PsGCAMRauR6dXccg$>
http://www.cesaronitech.com/
(941) 360-3100 x101 Sarasota
(905) 887-2370 x222 Toronto
From: Hqnews <hqnews-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:hqnews-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > On Behalf Of NASA News Releases
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 7:53 PM
To: hqnews@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:hqnews@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [NASA HQ News] March 19 Administrator Statement on Agency Response to
Coronavirus
March 19, 2020
RELEASE 20-030
March 19 Administrator Statement on Agency Response to Coronavirus
The following is a statement from NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine:
“NASA leadership is determined to make the health and safety of its workforce
its top priority as we navigate the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation. To that
end, the agency’s Michoud Assembly Facility and Stennis Space Center are moving
to Stage 4 of the NASA Response Framework
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/nasapeople.nasa.gov/coronavirus/nasa_response_framework.pdf__;!!LIr3w8kk_Xxm!5yiCjInjp8q0cKofOb6VvxMUWMTcHVRCGwzyWf433sKIjag2wKBewNFi30PsGCAMRaszeieK2w$>
, effective Friday, March 20.
“The change at Stennis was made due to the rising number of COVID-19 cases in
the community around the center, the number of self-isolation cases within our
workforce there, and one confirmed case among our Stennis team. While there
are no confirmed cases at Michoud, the facility is moving to Stage 4 due to the
rising number of COVID-19 cases in the local area, in accordance with local and
federal guidelines.
“Mandatory telework is in effect for NASA personnel at both facilities until
further notice. Additionally, all travel is suspended. These measures are being
taken to help slow the transmission of COVID-19 and protect our communities.
“Access to Stennis and Michoud will be limited to personnel required to
maintain the safety and security of the center, as approved by agency
leadership and the resident agencies. All previously approved exceptions for
onsite work are rescinded and new approvals will be required in order to gain
access to the center.
“NASA will temporarily suspend production and testing of Space Launch System
and Orion hardware. The NASA and contractors teams will complete an orderly
shutdown that puts all hardware in a safe condition until work can resume. Once
this is complete, personnel allowed onsite will be limited to those needed to
protect life and critical infrastructure.
“We realize there will be impacts to NASA missions, but as our teams work to
analyze the full picture and reduce risks we understand that our top priority
is the health and safety of the NASA workforce.
“I ask all members of the NASA workforce to stay in close contact with your
supervisor and check the NASA People
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/nasapeople.nasa.gov/coronavirus/__;!!LIr3w8kk_Xxm!5yiCjInjp8q0cKofOb6VvxMUWMTcHVRCGwzyWf433sKIjag2wKBewNFi30PsGCAMRauMcIVcFQ$>
website regularly for updates. Also, in these difficult times, do not
hesitate to reach out to the NASA Employee Assistance Program
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.nasa.gov/offices/ochmo/divisions/health_medsys/eap_info.html__;!!LIr3w8kk_Xxm!5yiCjInjp8q0cKofOb6VvxMUWMTcHVRCGwzyWf433sKIjag2wKBewNFi30PsGCAMRavZNH1vRA$>
, if needed.
“I will continue to say, so none of us forget – there is no team better
prepared for doing hard things. Take care of yourself, your family, and your
NASA team.”
-end-
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