It’s nice to agree, Henry.
I don’t have any lock on the economic effects. I recognized that the
market was overvalued several years ago and accumulated cash; I’m seeing
signs of panic in the the current selling but I am not seeing evidence of
capitulation. I’ve bought some this past week but I’m still about half in
cash; it is not yet time to call bottom.
The long run effects seem to me too difficult to predict: too many
variables each of which could dramatically effect the outcome a decade from
now. It does seem possible that this will prove more like 1929 than
anything more recent, but mostly I just don’t know.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 9:38 PM Henry Vanderbilt <hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
Bill,
Agreed, absent catastrophe, ~18 months to where we have enough herd
immunity - hopefully mostly vaccine-produced - to backburner this thing and
move on.
I see the chief likely path to this becoming economically tolerable in the
meantime as being an effective antiviral treatment that reduces severity to
the point where death rate drops by a factor of ten or so (more would be
nice.) At that point, with continued "social distancing" & improved
personal sanitation customs, combined with a wide-net
testing/contact-tracing/case-quarantine regime, we might be able to resume
normal economic activity without an unacceptable level of severe infections
and deaths. (I haven't run numbers on that - the 10x reduction was pulled
out of a hat on the assumption that we're able to tolerate other widespread
respiratory bugs with that ballpark 0.1% deaths/cases. YMMV.)
Henry
On 3/20/2020 7:26 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
Henry:
We agree even down to your comments about competence and politicians.
My only observation is that quarantine, once it reduces local R0 below one
point zero, will have to be maintained until a vaccine is available.
Which—as you observe—is not likely to be widely distributed before 18
months from now, optimistically.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 8:15 PM Henry Vanderbilt <
hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Bill,
R0 estimates vary all over the place. And the actual value of course is
going to vary with local customs and practices, as modified by local
containment measures. Probably futile trying to estimate R0 now; it's
something you figure out after the dust has settled.
One data point on how far this thing spreads in a given population,
albeit far from a pure one: 3700 people total on Diamond Princess, all
tested, current near-final positive count 712, for about 20% total infected.
Now, initially the spread on Diamond Princess was uncontained. Then,
there was a disorganized incompetent attempt to contain it. Then the
continuing flow of new infections scared them into getting competent. So
it's definitely not any strong indication of where herd immunity would
become effective in an uncontained spread.
I suspect it is, however, a decent approximation of the likely sequence
in your average densely populated US city with an incompetent
political-hack local government. Uncontained, then incompetently
contained, then hugely scary results, then competently contained. If only
because the state and/or the Feds step in.
Places that are well-enough run to skip the middle two steps will see a
lot fewer overall cases, I suspect.
Places that are badly enough run that they can't reach step 4 on their
own are in for a really rough ride. (NYC now is at step 3 - known
infections increasing at ~70%/day - and the Mayor is apparently not taking
advice.)
A place that averages the same total 20% spread as Diamond Princess and
*doesn't* run out of Respiratory ICU beds should see about 200 deaths
per 100,000 population. (~5% of infectees will need a ventilator, ~4 out
of 5 of those will then be saved by the ICU treatment.) A place that does
run out of RICU beds - US average is about 50 such beds per 100,000
population - could see up to 1000 deaths per 100,000. (More, of course, if
total spread ends up higher than 20%.)
~50 beds per 100,000 of us should make it abundantly clear why
containment measures sufficient to time-spread the infections peak a LOT
are very important. (Current initiatives might in time raise that to 60 or
70 beds. One of the major bottlenecks is years-trained personnel.)
Entirely aside from such containment measures buying time for effective
acute-case treatments (another month at best, more likely a few months) and
a vaccine (likely a year or more) to arrive.
Henry
On 3/20/2020 6:30 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
John:
After looking—again—I am not able to find the source for you assertion
that R0 is between 1.5 and 3.0. From where are you getting these numbers?
Note that because some localities will not Institute quarantine, it
follows—given exponential growth of infection—that w/i no more than a few
months we will have natural experiments that accurately measure whether
herd immunity is achieved at as little as 30% infection.
Today, I remain unaware of data indicating that R0 is not comparable to
smallpox, but definitely open to new data.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 5:01 PM John Schilling <
john.schilling@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On 3/19/2020 7:32 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
For herd immunity, you only need 1-(1/R0) of the population to have had
it, which means you'd need an R0 of 10 to infect 90% of the population. R0
estimates for COVID-19 range from 1.5 - 3.0, so 35-55% of the population,
not 90%.
And that's for doing absolutely nothing. Long-term, public health
measures like contact tracing and behavioral changes like more handwashing
will knock R0 down from that initial 1.5-3.0 range. If it goes below 1.0,
and the virus is reduced to sporadic outbreaks without needing herd
immunity.
90% of the human population being infected is an innumerate paranoid
fantasy, and we don't need those right now.
John Schilling
Anthony:
It will undoubtedly pass but not until about 90% of the human population
has had it and survived (herd immunity) or until a similar fraction has had
some combination of having had it or had a vaccination.
Given pressure, the usual 18 months to get a safe vaccine might be
reduced to 15 months; assuming 6 months more to vaccinate everyone who
hasn’t had it, I get an optimistic 18 months before this is over, locally.
When the Chinese back off of their current quarantine, look for a second
wave of infections to follow: less than 1% of the Chinese population is now
immune from having had it and survived.
Bill
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 7:18 PM Anthony Cesaroni <anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
Next year. This will pass.
Anthony J. Cesaroni
President/CEO
Cesaroni Technology/Cesaroni Aerospace
*http://www.cesaronitech.com/*
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March 19, 2020
RELEASE 20-030
*March 19 Administrator Statement on Agency Response to Coronavirus*
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