Anthony;
I’ve read both and found them implausible.
Finding three only “cycles” in American history and projecting a future
based thereon is statistical rubbish: both the past and the future are far
more complex than that sort of cheap “thinking”.
Zelhan ignores the entirety of the 19th century British Navy control of the
seas; the US post World War Two dominance of the seas and consequent
expansion of global trade is a bit act compared to Britain’s influence over
the 19th century.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 8:48 PM Anthony Cesaroni <anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
“ The Storm Before the Calm” George Friedman and “The Accidental
Superpower” Peter Zelhan. Read both starting with Friedman. These help to
explain why we are where we are and where we are going.
Anthony J. Cesaroni
President/CEO
Cesaroni Technology/Cesaroni Aerospace
http://www.cesaronitech.com/
(941) 360-3100 x101 Sarasota
(905) 887-2370 x222 Toronto
*From:* arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> *On
Behalf Of *William Claybaugh
*Sent:* Friday, March 20, 2020 10:26 PM
*To:* arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
*Subject:* [AR] Re: FW: [NASA HQ News] March 19 Administrator Statement
on Agency Response to Coronavirus
Henry:
We agree even down to your comments about competence and politicians.
My only observation is that quarantine, once it reduces local R0 below one
point zero, will have to be maintained until a vaccine is available.
Which—as you observe—is not likely to be widely distributed before 18
months from now, optimistically.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 8:15 PM Henry Vanderbilt <
hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Bill,
R0 estimates vary all over the place. And the actual value of course is
going to vary with local customs and practices, as modified by local
containment measures. Probably futile trying to estimate R0 now; it's
something you figure out after the dust has settled.
One data point on how far this thing spreads in a given population, albeit
far from a pure one: 3700 people total on Diamond Princess, all tested,
current near-final positive count 712, for about 20% total infected.
Now, initially the spread on Diamond Princess was uncontained. Then,
there was a disorganized incompetent attempt to contain it. Then the
continuing flow of new infections scared them into getting competent. So
it's definitely not any strong indication of where herd immunity would
become effective in an uncontained spread.
I suspect it is, however, a decent approximation of the likely sequence in
your average densely populated US city with an incompetent political-hack
local government. Uncontained, then incompetently contained, then hugely
scary results, then competently contained. If only because the state
and/or the Feds step in.
Places that are well-enough run to skip the middle two steps will see a
lot fewer overall cases, I suspect.
Places that are badly enough run that they can't reach step 4 on their own
are in for a really rough ride. (NYC now is at step 3 - known infections
increasing at ~70%/day - and the Mayor is apparently not taking advice.)
A place that averages the same total 20% spread as Diamond Princess and
*doesn't* run out of Respiratory ICU beds should see about 200 deaths per
100,000 population. (~5% of infectees will need a ventilator, ~4 out of 5
of those will then be saved by the ICU treatment.) A place that does run
out of RICU beds - US average is about 50 such beds per 100,000 population
- could see up to 1000 deaths per 100,000. (More, of course, if total
spread ends up higher than 20%.)
~50 beds per 100,000 of us should make it abundantly clear why containment
measures sufficient to time-spread the infections peak a LOT are very
important. (Current initiatives might in time raise that to 60 or 70
beds. One of the major bottlenecks is years-trained personnel.) Entirely
aside from such containment measures buying time for effective acute-case
treatments (another month at best, more likely a few months) and a vaccine
(likely a year or more) to arrive.
Henry
On 3/20/2020 6:30 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
John:
After looking—again—I am not able to find the source for you assertion
that R0 is between 1.5 and 3.0. From where are you getting these numbers?
Note that because some localities will not Institute quarantine, it
follows—given exponential growth of infection—that w/i no more than a few
months we will have natural experiments that accurately measure whether
herd immunity is achieved at as little as 30% infection.
Today, I remain unaware of data indicating that R0 is not comparable to
smallpox, but definitely open to new data.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 5:01 PM John Schilling <
john.schilling@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On 3/19/2020 7:32 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
For herd immunity, you only need 1-(1/R0) of the population to have had
it, which means you'd need an R0 of 10 to infect 90% of the population. R0
estimates for COVID-19 range from 1.5 - 3.0, so 35-55% of the population,
not 90%.
And that's for doing absolutely nothing. Long-term, public health
measures like contact tracing and behavioral changes like more handwashing
will knock R0 down from that initial 1.5-3.0 range. If it goes below 1.0,
and the virus is reduced to sporadic outbreaks without needing herd
immunity.
90% of the human population being infected is an innumerate paranoid
fantasy, and we don't need those right now.
John Schilling
Anthony:
It will undoubtedly pass but not until about 90% of the human population
has had it and survived (herd immunity) or until a similar fraction has had
some combination of having had it or had a vaccination.
Given pressure, the usual 18 months to get a safe vaccine might be reduced
to 15 months; assuming 6 months more to vaccinate everyone who hasn’t had
it, I get an optimistic 18 months before this is over, locally.
When the Chinese back off of their current quarantine, look for a second
wave of infections to follow: less than 1% of the Chinese population is now
immune from having had it and survived.
Bill
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 7:18 PM Anthony Cesaroni <anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
Next year. This will pass.
Anthony J. Cesaroni
President/CEO
Cesaroni Technology/Cesaroni Aerospace
http://www.cesaronitech.com/
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/www.cesaronitech.com/__;!!LIr3w8kk_Xxm!5yiCjInjp8q0cKofOb6VvxMUWMTcHVRCGwzyWf433sKIjag2wKBewNFi30PsGCAMRauR6dXccg$>
(941) 360-3100 x101 Sarasota
(905) 887-2370 x222 Toronto
*From:* Hqnews <hqnews-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> *On Behalf Of *NASA
News Releases
*Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 7:53 PM
*To:* hqnews@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
*Subject:* [NASA HQ News] March 19 Administrator Statement on Agency
Response to Coronavirus
March 19, 2020
RELEASE 20-030
*March 19 Administrator Statement on Agency Response to Coronavirus*
The following is a statement from NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine:
“NASA leadership is determined to make the health and safety of its
workforce its top priority as we navigate the coronavirus (COVID-19)
situation. To that end, the agency’s Michoud Assembly Facility and Stennis
Space Center are moving to Stage 4 of the NASA Response Framework
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/nasapeople.nasa.gov/coronavirus/nasa_response_framework.pdf__;!!LIr3w8kk_Xxm!5yiCjInjp8q0cKofOb6VvxMUWMTcHVRCGwzyWf433sKIjag2wKBewNFi30PsGCAMRaszeieK2w$>,
effective
Friday, March 20.
“The change at Stennis was made due to the rising number of COVID-19 cases
in the community around the center, the number of self-isolation cases
within our workforce there, and one confirmed case among our Stennis team.
While there are no confirmed cases at Michoud, the facility is moving to
Stage 4 due to the rising number of COVID-19 cases in the local area, in
accordance with local and federal guidelines.
“Mandatory telework is in effect for NASA personnel at both facilities
until further notice. Additionally, all travel is suspended. These measures
are being taken to help slow the transmission of COVID-19 and protect our
communities.
“Access to Stennis and Michoud will be limited to personnel required to
maintain the safety and security of the center, as approved by agency
leadership and the resident agencies. All previously approved exceptions
for onsite work are rescinded and new approvals will be required in order
to gain access to the center.
“NASA will temporarily suspend production and testing of Space Launch
System and Orion hardware. The NASA and contractors teams will complete an
orderly shutdown that puts all hardware in a safe condition until work can
resume. Once this is complete, personnel allowed onsite will be limited to
those needed to protect life and critical infrastructure.
“We realize there will be impacts to NASA missions, but as our teams work
to analyze the full picture and reduce risks we understand that our top
priority is the health and safety of the NASA workforce.
“I ask all members of the NASA workforce to stay in close contact with
your supervisor and check the NASA People
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/nasapeople.nasa.gov/coronavirus/__;!!LIr3w8kk_Xxm!5yiCjInjp8q0cKofOb6VvxMUWMTcHVRCGwzyWf433sKIjag2wKBewNFi30PsGCAMRauMcIVcFQ$>website
regularly for updates. Also, in these difficult times, do not hesitate to
reach out to the NASA Employee Assistance Program
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.nasa.gov/offices/ochmo/divisions/health_medsys/eap_info.html__;!!LIr3w8kk_Xxm!5yiCjInjp8q0cKofOb6VvxMUWMTcHVRCGwzyWf433sKIjag2wKBewNFi30PsGCAMRavZNH1vRA$>,
if needed.
“I will continue to say, so none of us forget – there is no team better
prepared for doing hard things. Take care of yourself, your family, and
your NASA team.”
-end-
*Press Contacts*
Bettina Inclán / Matthew Rydin
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