Take your current death rate from the virus, divide by the approximately 1%
death rate. Once your positive test reach the level, you are testing
enough. (But all numbers need to be adjusted for exponential growth, of
course)
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 11:07 AM Uwe Klein <uwe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Am 20.03.2020 um 21:20 schrieb David Summers:
While the infection rate may be unknown, the death rate is easier to
know. Barring a coverup, the numbers seem right.
Thing I haven't really tried to get a grip on:
You do a number of tests ( with cause for testing assumed
i.e. not shotgun style testing. )
from this you get a certain number of positives : infected.
for the US from official numbers 50+k tests with ~16k infected found or
~30% positive.
for Germany I could only find 35k in the last week for the last weeks
delta of ~9k positives. 25% ? ~ same domain.
( haven't looked anywhere else.)
When is a point of overtesting reached?
What positives rate should be aimed for to get good coverage?
( obviously testing everybody and his/her hamster is out of the question
at the moment // for ever?
I'd go for shotgun antibody testing later on to get expanded information
including (silent, unnoticed) spread )
Uwe