Good points, John, you evidently have access to better data than I have
seen.
There is, however, no reason for that that last which is simply rude.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 5:01 PM John Schilling <
john.schilling@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On 3/19/2020 7:32 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
For herd immunity, you only need 1-(1/R0) of the population to have had
it, which means you'd need an R0 of 10 to infect 90% of the population. R0
estimates for COVID-19 range from 1.5 - 3.0, so 35-55% of the population,
not 90%.
And that's for doing absolutely nothing. Long-term, public health
measures like contact tracing and behavioral changes like more handwashing
will knock R0 down from that initial 1.5-3.0 range. If it goes below 1.0,
and the virus is reduced to sporadic outbreaks without needing herd
immunity.
90% of the human population being infected is an innumerate paranoid
fantasy, and we don't need those right now.
John Schilling
Anthony:
It will undoubtedly pass but not until about 90% of the human population
has had it and survived (herd immunity) or until a similar fraction has had
some combination of having had it or had a vaccination.
Given pressure, the usual 18 months to get a safe vaccine might be reduced
to 15 months; assuming 6 months more to vaccinate everyone who hasn’t had
it, I get an optimistic 18 months before this is over, locally.
When the Chinese back off of their current quarantine, look for a second
wave of infections to follow: less than 1% of the Chinese population is now
immune from having had it and survived.
Bill
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 7:18 PM Anthony Cesaroni <anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
Next year. This will pass.
Anthony J. Cesaroni
President/CEO
Cesaroni Technology/Cesaroni Aerospace
*http://www.cesaronitech.com/*
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*Subject:* [NASA HQ News] March 19 Administrator Statement on Agency
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March 19, 2020
RELEASE 20-030
*March 19 Administrator Statement on Agency Response to Coronavirus*
The following is a statement from NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine:
“NASA leadership is determined to make the health and safety of its
workforce its top priority as we navigate the coronavirus (COVID-19)
situation. To that end, the agency’s Michoud Assembly Facility and Stennis
Space Center are moving to Stage 4 of the NASA Response Framework
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effective
Friday, March 20.
“The change at Stennis was made due to the rising number of COVID-19
cases in the community around the center, the number of self-isolation
cases within our workforce there, and one confirmed case among our Stennis
team. While there are no confirmed cases at Michoud, the facility is
moving to Stage 4 due to the rising number of COVID-19 cases in the local
area, in accordance with local and federal guidelines.
“Mandatory telework is in effect for NASA personnel at both facilities
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“NASA will temporarily suspend production and testing of Space Launch
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