The source I cited explicitly describes the R0 of 2.2-2.5 as bein
observed in the *absence* of intervention and that only "low confirmed
case counts" were found in places with intense quarantine and social
distancing measures.
John Schilling
On 3/20/2020 7:17 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
John:
I should add that I have read some of the WHO reported studies—which I assume to be your sources—but that all of those studies appear to have been conducted in the presence of active intervention to prevent spread and thus do not seem—to me—representative of wild spread.
Also note that my original conclusion—that this is an 18 month problem—remains correct: in the presence of quarantine, even a low 30% population infection herd immunity is unlikely until a vaccine becomes available.
Only those locations that do nothing are likely to reach even 30% “coverage” within the next year and that at a very high price.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 7:30 PM William Claybaugh <wclaybaugh2@xxxxxxxxx <mailto:wclaybaugh2@xxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
John:
After looking—again—I am not able to find the source for you
assertion that R0 is between 1.5 and 3.0. From where are you
getting these numbers?
Note that because some localities will not Institute quarantine,
it follows—given exponential growth of infection—that w/i no more
than a few months we will have natural experiments that accurately
measure whether herd immunity is achieved at as little as 30%
infection.
Today, I remain unaware of data indicating that R0 is not
comparable to smallpox, but definitely open to new data.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 5:01 PM John Schilling
<john.schilling@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:john.schilling@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
On 3/19/2020 7:32 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
For herd immunity, you only need 1-(1/R0) of the population to
have had it, which means you'd need an R0 of 10 to infect 90%
of the population. R0 estimates for COVID-19 range from 1.5 -
3.0, so 35-55% of the population, not 90%.
And that's for doing absolutely nothing. Long-term, public
health measures like contact tracing and behavioral changes
like more handwashing will knock R0 down from that initial
1.5-3.0 range. If it goes below 1.0, and the virus is reduced
to sporadic outbreaks without needing herd immunity.
90% of the human population being infected is an innumerate
paranoid fantasy, and we don't need those right now.
John Schilling
Anthony:
It will undoubtedly pass but not until about 90% of the human
population has had it and survived (herd immunity) or until a
similar fraction has had some combination of having had it or
had a vaccination.
Given pressure, the usual 18 months to get a safe vaccine
might be reduced to 15 months; assuming 6 months more to
vaccinate everyone who hasn’t had it, I get an optimistic 18
months before this is over, locally.
When the Chinese back off of their current quarantine, look
for a second wave of infections to follow: less than 1% of
the Chinese population is now immune from having had it and
survived.
Bill
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 7:18 PM Anthony Cesaroni
<anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
Next year. This will pass.
Anthony J. Cesaroni
President/CEO
Cesaroni Technology/Cesaroni Aerospace
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