Thank you John.
Anthony J. Cesaroni
President/CEO
Cesaroni Technology/Cesaroni Aerospace
<http://www.cesaronitech.com/> http://www.cesaronitech.com/
(941) 360-3100 x101 Sarasota
(905) 887-2370 x222 Toronto
From: arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> On Behalf Of
John Schilling
Sent: Friday, March 20, 2020 7:01 PM
To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [AR] Re: FW: [NASA HQ News] March 19 Administrator Statement on Agency
Response to Coronavirus
On 3/19/2020 7:32 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
For herd immunity, you only need 1-(1/R0) of the population to have had it,
which means you'd need an R0 of 10 to infect 90% of the population. R0
estimates for COVID-19 range from 1.5 - 3.0, so 35-55% of the population, not
90%.
And that's for doing absolutely nothing. Long-term, public health measures
like contact tracing and behavioral changes like more handwashing will knock R0
down from that initial 1.5-3.0 range. If it goes below 1.0, and the virus is
reduced to sporadic outbreaks without needing herd immunity.
90% of the human population being infected is an innumerate paranoid fantasy,
and we don't need those right now.
John Schilling