Well, well. Interesting couple of days. I now have what I'd normally
call a mildly annoying generic respiratory bug. I've been told as long
as it doesn't get to serious shortness of breath (for those who own a
fingertip blood oxy meter, it's non-linear - mid nineties is normal, 90%
is go-see-a-doctor-/now/ time) and/or fever, I should stay home, drink
plenty of fluids, and take it easy. And no test per local protocol
unless it's bad enough to go see a doctor, which is annoying.
Well. To Bill's economic points of three days ago... Yes, I think this
country still has considerable run-in-circles-scream-and-shout ahead
yet. (In particular, the NYC metro area has real problems with a
new-cases rate north of 60%/day in the recent multi-day average -
they're rapidly approaching half the nation's total of known cases.)
The stock buying opportunities will be around for a while, and more
likely than not will get better before its over. In a related field,
real estate, I heard some news on a business channel this am that
supports my guess that things are due to soften considerably: A realtor
reported that it's getting common for purchasers to walk away from
recent peak-o-the-market contracts, despite losing their deposits.
OTOH, nobody will sell who doesn't absolutely have to, and the loan
holders will likely be holding off forcing sales for the duration. I'd
guess we'll see more of a freeze-up in real estate than a crash.
I'm reasonably optimistic about the long run, however. This will be
massively disruptive for a few months, then I expect a combination of
targeted antiviral treatments and public habit changes will allow
mostly-normal economic life to resume. The economic infrastructure and
people will mostly still be there - the problem at that point will be
all the people and businesses that are out of cash and behind on their
rents and loans - effectively bankrupt. The current administration
seems acutely aware of this issue and seems ready to firehose in easy
cash when the time comes. As long as that doesn't change, I expect a
brisk recovery.
Though it does occur to me that the cash firehose may combine with
still-ramping-back-up production to produce a noteworthy burst of
inflation. But then the current slowdown seems to be producing major
price drops in things like fuel and airline tickets. To some extent,
the final result on prices may be a wash, albeit with some whiplash en
route - but I Am Not An Economist.
Henry
On 3/20/2020 9:36 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
It’s nice to agree, Henry.
I don’t have any lock on the economic effects. I recognized that the market was overvalued several years ago and accumulated cash; I’m seeing signs of panic in the the current selling but I am not seeing evidence of capitulation. I’ve bought some this past week but I’m still about half in cash; it is not yet time to call bottom.
The long run effects seem to me too difficult to predict: too many variables each of which could dramatically effect the outcome a decade from now. It does seem possible that this will prove more like 1929 than anything more recent, but mostly I just don’t know.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 9:38 PM Henry Vanderbilt <hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
Bill,
Agreed, absent catastrophe, ~18 months to where we have enough
herd immunity - hopefully mostly vaccine-produced - to backburner
this thing and move on.
I see the chief likely path to this becoming economically
tolerable in the meantime as being an effective antiviral
treatment that reduces severity to the point where death rate
drops by a factor of ten or so (more would be nice.) At that
point, with continued "social distancing" & improved personal
sanitation customs, combined with a wide-net
testing/contact-tracing/case-quarantine regime, we might be able
to resume normal economic activity without an unacceptable level
of severe infections and deaths. (I haven't run numbers on that -
the 10x reduction was pulled out of a hat on the assumption that
we're able to tolerate other widespread respiratory bugs with that
ballpark 0.1% deaths/cases. YMMV.)
Henry
On 3/20/2020 7:26 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
Henry:
We agree even down to your comments about competence and politicians.
My only observation is that quarantine, once it reduces local R0
below one point zero, will have to be maintained until a vaccine
is available. Which—as you observe—is not likely to be widely
distributed before 18 months from now, optimistically.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 8:15 PM Henry Vanderbilt
<hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
wrote:
Bill,
R0 estimates vary all over the place. And the actual value
of course is going to vary with local customs and practices,
as modified by local containment measures. Probably futile
trying to estimate R0 now; it's something you figure out
after the dust has settled.
One data point on how far this thing spreads in a given
population, albeit far from a pure one: 3700 people total on
Diamond Princess, all tested, current near-final positive
count 712, for about 20% total infected.
Now, initially the spread on Diamond Princess was
uncontained. Then, there was a disorganized incompetent
attempt to contain it. Then the continuing flow of new
infections scared them into getting competent. So it's
definitely not any strong indication of where herd immunity
would become effective in an uncontained spread.
I suspect it is, however, a decent approximation of the
likely sequence in your average densely populated US city
with an incompetent political-hack local government.
Uncontained, then incompetently contained, then hugely scary
results, then competently contained. If only because the
state and/or the Feds step in.
Places that are well-enough run to skip the middle two steps
will see a lot fewer overall cases, I suspect.
Places that are badly enough run that they can't reach step 4
on their own are in for a really rough ride. (NYC now is at
step 3 - known infections increasing at ~70%/day - and the
Mayor is apparently not taking advice.)
A place that averages the same total 20% spread as Diamond
Princess and /doesn't/ run out of Respiratory ICU beds should
see about 200 deaths per 100,000 population. (~5% of
infectees will need a ventilator, ~4 out of 5 of those will
then be saved by the ICU treatment.) A place that does run
out of RICU beds - US average is about 50 such beds per
100,000 population - could see up to 1000 deaths per
100,000. (More, of course, if total spread ends up higher
than 20%.)
~50 beds per 100,000 of us should make it abundantly clear
why containment measures sufficient to time-spread the
infections peak a LOT are very important. (Current
initiatives might in time raise that to 60 or 70 beds. One
of the major bottlenecks is years-trained personnel.)
Entirely aside from such containment measures buying time for
effective acute-case treatments (another month at best, more
likely a few months) and a vaccine (likely a year or more) to
arrive.
Henry
On 3/20/2020 6:30 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
John:
After looking—again—I am not able to find the source for you
assertion that R0 is between 1.5 and 3.0. From where are
you getting these numbers?
Note that because some localities will not Institute
quarantine, it follows—given exponential growth of
infection—that w/i no more than a few months we will have
natural experiments that accurately measure whether herd
immunity is achieved at as little as 30% infection.
Today, I remain unaware of data indicating that R0 is not
comparable to smallpox, but definitely open to new data.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 5:01 PM John Schilling
<john.schilling@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:john.schilling@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
On 3/19/2020 7:32 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
For herd immunity, you only need 1-(1/R0) of the
population to have had it, which means you'd need an R0
of 10 to infect 90% of the population. R0 estimates for
COVID-19 range from 1.5 - 3.0, so 35-55% of the
population, not 90%.
And that's for doing absolutely nothing. Long-term,
public health measures like contact tracing and
behavioral changes like more handwashing will knock R0
down from that initial 1.5-3.0 range. If it goes below
1.0, and the virus is reduced to sporadic outbreaks
without needing herd immunity.
90% of the human population being infected is an
innumerate paranoid fantasy, and we don't need those
right now.
John Schilling
Anthony:
It will undoubtedly pass but not until about 90% of the
human population has had it and survived (herd
immunity) or until a similar fraction has had some
combination of having had it or had a vaccination.
Given pressure, the usual 18 months to get a safe
vaccine might be reduced to 15 months; assuming 6
months more to vaccinate everyone who hasn’t had it, I
get an optimistic 18 months before this is over, locally.
When the Chinese back off of their current quarantine,
look for a second wave of infections to follow: less
than 1% of the Chinese population is now immune from
having had it and survived.
Bill
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 7:18 PM Anthony Cesaroni
<anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
Next year. This will pass.
Anthony J. Cesaroni
President/CEO
Cesaroni Technology/Cesaroni Aerospace
_http://www.cesaronitech.com/_
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(941) 360-3100 x101 Sarasota
(905) 887-2370 x222 Toronto
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