Amen! May it be so.Sent from my Sprint Tablet.
-------- Original message --------From: roxanna Mason
<rocketmaster.ken@xxxxxxxxx> Date: 3/21/20 14:14 (GMT-05:00) To:
arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx Subject: [AR] Re: FW: [NASA HQ News] March 19
Administrator Statement on Agency Response to Coronavirus WITHOUT getting into
a heated exchange which is not my intention only to spur some thought,
Unfortunately this topic always generates more argument than debate but as a
scientist and engineer it was hard for a long time to understand let alone
believe in biblical prophesy,i.e. science and scripture. But after nearly 65
years and an open mind and eyes,
it is indeed falling into place. Remember the entire earth recently has only
been explored/conquered,barely. One Bible prophesy that needs to be fulfilled
before "the end" is to"teach the word to all four corners of the earth". This
is only recently being fulfilled, the wild west was not that long ago. Another
was that Israel getting their land back(1947).What's left? Not much,
"rebuilding of the temple" and with Trumps new middle east peace plan under way
that may become reality this year.Yes it is difficult to have an open mind with
some things but with so many aspects of the bible being so true and with no
contradictions going back so far into history it is worth serious consideration
if one can keep that open mind. Oh, and by the way, prayer helps,and does work.
After a point, coincidence is not an option. You Tube has many videos on these
topics,surprising finds and research not found on TV. I suggest, with all this
down time, sit down at your lap top and watch some videos and say a quick
prayer for the truth and spitit of understanding.
Virus-free. www.avast.com
On Sat, Mar 21, 2020 at 8:54 AM William Claybaugh <wclaybaugh2@xxxxxxxxx>
wrote:Anthony:The cultural history of the US is noted for the consistent
millennialism that arose nearly 400 years ago. Other places certainly have
occasional millennialist outbreaks but US cultural history has hundreds of
examples which continue to this day.One might think that the belief that the
near future is coincident with the end of time would fade away as it became
obvious over time that the end never comes. But that is plainly not the case
wrt the US nearly uniquely.Friedman is of that cultural history. That he
foregoes the end of the world in his predictions in favor of major crisis
followed by something indeterminate suggests he has learned something from the
cultural history; but the storytelling is still part of that history. The end
is not nigh.Bill On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 9:28 PM Anthony Cesaroni
<anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:What do find flawed with George Friedman’s book?
Anthony J. CesaroniPresident/CEOCesaroni Technology/Cesaroni
Aerospacehttp://www.cesaronitech.com/(941) 360-3100 x101 Sarasota(905) 887-2370
x222 Toronto From: arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
On Behalf Of Anthony CesaroniSent: Friday, March 20, 2020 11:11 PMTo:
arocket@freelists.orgSubject: [AR] Re: FW: [NASA HQ News] March 19
Administrator Statement on Agency Response to Coronavirus I am totally
impressed with your scope of reading and opinion Bill. Thanks. Anthony J.
CesaroniPresident/CEOCesaroni Technology/Cesaroni
Aerospacehttp://www.cesaronitech.com/(941) 360-3100 x101 Sarasota(905) 887-2370
x222 Toronto From: arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
On Behalf Of William ClaybaughSent: Friday, March 20, 2020 11:06 PMTo:
arocket@freelists.orgSubject: [AR] Re: FW: [NASA HQ News] March 19
Administrator Statement on Agency Response to Coronavirus Anthony; I’ve read
both and found them implausible. Finding three only “cycles” in American
history and projecting a future based thereon is statistical rubbish: both the
past and the future are far more complex than that sort of cheap “thinking”.
Zelhan ignores the entirety of the 19th century British Navy control of the
seas; the US post World War Two dominance of the seas and consequent expansion
of global trade is a bit act compared to Britain’s influence over the 19th
century. Bill On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 8:48 PM Anthony Cesaroni
<anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:“ The Storm Before the Calm” George Friedman and
“The Accidental Superpower” Peter Zelhan. Read both starting with Friedman.
These help to explain why we are where we are and where we are going. Anthony
J. CesaroniPresident/CEOCesaroni Technology/Cesaroni
Aerospacehttp://www.cesaronitech.com/(941) 360-3100 x101 Sarasota(905) 887-2370
x222 Toronto From: arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <arocket-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
On Behalf Of William ClaybaughSent: Friday, March 20, 2020 10:26 PMTo:
arocket@freelists.orgSubject: [AR] Re: FW: [NASA HQ News] March 19
Administrator Statement on Agency Response to Coronavirus Henry: We agree even
down to your comments about competence and politicians. My only observation is
that quarantine, once it reduces local R0 below one point zero, will have to be
maintained until a vaccine is available. Which—as you observe—is not likely to
be widely distributed before 18 months from now, optimistically. Bill On Fri,
Mar 20, 2020 at 8:15 PM Henry Vanderbilt <hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:Bill,R0 estimates vary all over the place. And the actual value of
course is going to vary with local customs and practices, as modified by local
containment measures. Probably futile trying to estimate R0 now; it's
something you figure out after the dust has settled.One data point on how far
this thing spreads in a given population, albeit far from a pure one: 3700
people total on Diamond Princess, all tested, current near-final positive count
712, for about 20% total infected.Now, initially the spread on Diamond Princess
was uncontained. Then, there was a disorganized incompetent attempt to contain
it. Then the continuing flow of new infections scared them into getting
competent. So it's definitely not any strong indication of where herd immunity
would become effective in an uncontained spread.I suspect it is, however, a
decent approximation of the likely sequence in your average densely populated
US city with an incompetent political-hack local government. Uncontained, then
incompetently contained, then hugely scary results, then competently contained.
If only because the state and/or the Feds step in.Places that are well-enough
run to skip the middle two steps will see a lot fewer overall cases, I
suspect.Places that are badly enough run that they can't reach step 4 on their
own are in for a really rough ride. (NYC now is at step 3 - known infections
increasing at ~70%/day - and the Mayor is apparently not taking advice.)A place
that averages the same total 20% spread as Diamond Princess and doesn't run out
of Respiratory ICU beds should see about 200 deaths per 100,000 population.
(~5% of infectees will need a ventilator, ~4 out of 5 of those will then be
saved by the ICU treatment.) A place that does run out of RICU beds - US
average is about 50 such beds per 100,000 population - could see up to 1000
deaths per 100,000. (More, of course, if total spread ends up higher than
20%.)~50 beds per 100,000 of us should make it abundantly clear why containment
measures sufficient to time-spread the infections peak a LOT are very
important. (Current initiatives might in time raise that to 60 or 70 beds.
One of the major bottlenecks is years-trained personnel.) Entirely aside from
such containment measures buying time for effective acute-case treatments
(another month at best, more likely a few months) and a vaccine (likely a year
or more) to arrive.HenryOn 3/20/2020 6:30 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:John:
After looking—again—I am not able to find the source for you assertion that R0
is between 1.5 and 3.0. From where are you getting these numbers? Note that
because some localities will not Institute quarantine, it follows—given
exponential growth of infection—that w/i no more than a few months we will have
natural experiments that accurately measure whether herd immunity is achieved
at as little as 30% infection. Today, I remain unaware of data indicating that
R0 is not comparable to smallpox, but definitely open to new data. Bill On Fri,
Mar 20, 2020 at 5:01 PM John Schilling <john.schilling@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:On
3/19/2020 7:32 PM, William Claybaugh wrote: For herd immunity, you only need
1-(1/R0) of the population to have had it, which means you'd need an R0 of 10
to infect 90% of the population. R0 estimates for COVID-19 range from 1.5 -
3.0, so 35-55% of the population, not 90%. And that's for doing absolutely
nothing. Long-term, public health measures like contact tracing and behavioral
changes like more handwashing will knock R0 down from that initial 1.5-3.0
range. If it goes below 1.0, and the virus is reduced to sporadic outbreaks
without needing herd immunity. 90% of the human population being infected is an
innumerate paranoid fantasy, and we don't need those right now. John
Schilling Anthony: It will undoubtedly pass but not until about 90% of the
human population has had it and survived (herd immunity) or until a similar
fraction has had some combination of having had it or had a vaccination. Given
pressure, the usual 18 months to get a safe vaccine might be reduced to 15
months; assuming 6 months more to vaccinate everyone who hasn’t had it, I get
an optimistic 18 months before this is over, locally. When the Chinese back off
of their current quarantine, look for a second wave of infections to follow:
less than 1% of the Chinese population is now immune from having had it and
survived. Bill On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 7:18 PM Anthony Cesaroni
<anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:Next year. This will pass. Anthony J.
CesaroniPresident/CEOCesaroni Technology/Cesaroni
Aerospacehttp://www.cesaronitech.com/(941) 360-3100 x101 Sarasota(905) 887-2370
x222 Toronto From: Hqnews <hqnews-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> On Behalf Of
NASA News ReleasesSent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 7:53 PMTo:
hqnews@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.govSubject: [NASA HQ News] March 19 Administrator
Statement on Agency Response to Coronavirus March 19, 2020 RELEASE 20-030March
19 Administrator Statement on Agency Response to CoronavirusThe following is a
statement from NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine:“NASA leadership is
determined to make the health and safety of its workforce its top priority as
we navigate the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation. To that end, the agency’s
Michoud Assembly Facility and Stennis Space Center are moving to Stage 4 of the
NASA Response Framework, effective Friday, March 20.“The change at Stennis was
made due to the rising number of COVID-19 cases in the community around the
center, the number of self-isolation cases within our workforce there, and one
confirmed case among our Stennis team. While there are no confirmed cases at
Michoud, the facility is moving to Stage 4 due to the rising number of COVID-19
cases in the local area, in accordance with local and federal
guidelines.“Mandatory telework is in effect for NASA personnel at both
facilities until further notice. Additionally, all travel is suspended. These
measures are being taken to help slow the transmission of COVID-19 and protect
our communities. “Access to Stennis and Michoud will be limited to personnel
required to maintain the safety and security of the center, as approved by
agency leadership and the resident agencies. All previously approved exceptions
for onsite work are rescinded and new approvals will be required in order to
gain access to the center.“NASA will temporarily suspend production and testing
of Space Launch System and Orion hardware. The NASA and contractors teams will
complete an orderly shutdown that puts all hardware in a safe condition until
work can resume. Once this is complete, personnel allowed onsite will be
limited to those needed to protect life and critical infrastructure.“We realize
there will be impacts to NASA missions, but as our teams work to analyze the
full picture and reduce risks we understand that our top priority is the health
and safety of the NASA workforce.“I ask all members of the NASA workforce to
stay in close contact with your supervisor and check the NASA People website
regularly for updates. Also, in these difficult times, do not hesitate to reach
out to the NASA Employee Assistance Program, if needed. “I will continue to
say, so none of us forget – there is no team better prepared for doing hard
things. Take care of yourself, your family, and your NASA team.”-end- Press
ContactsBettina Inclán / Matthew RydinHeadquarters, Washington202-358-1600 /
202-603-7522bettina.inclan@xxxxxxxx / matthew.m.rydin@xxxxxxxx NASA news
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