I do think there will be some permanent changes, now that people have
figured out that teleworking and telelearning really can work. I also
think that the promoters of urban density and mass transit have gotten a
major comeuppance. Who knew that cars and suburbs were a great way to
not spread a disease? I also wouldn't be surprised if the trading floor
in New York never reopens, now that they've figured out that electronic
exchanges honest-to-gosh also really work.
On 3/23/20 11:36 AM, Henry Vanderbilt wrote:
Well, well. Interesting couple of days. I now have what I'd normally call a mildly annoying generic respiratory bug. I've been told as long as it doesn't get to serious shortness of breath (for those who own a fingertip blood oxy meter, it's non-linear - mid nineties is normal, 90% is go-see-a-doctor-/now/ time) and/or fever, I should stay home, drink plenty of fluids, and take it easy. And no test per local protocol unless it's bad enough to go see a doctor, which is annoying.
Well. To Bill's economic points of three days ago... Yes, I think this country still has considerable run-in-circles-scream-and-shout ahead yet. (In particular, the NYC metro area has real problems with a new-cases rate north of 60%/day in the recent multi-day average - they're rapidly approaching half the nation's total of known cases.) The stock buying opportunities will be around for a while, and more likely than not will get better before its over. In a related field, real estate, I heard some news on a business channel this am that supports my guess that things are due to soften considerably: A realtor reported that it's getting common for purchasers to walk away from recent peak-o-the-market contracts, despite losing their deposits. OTOH, nobody will sell who doesn't absolutely have to, and the loan holders will likely be holding off forcing sales for the duration. I'd guess we'll see more of a freeze-up in real estate than a crash.
I'm reasonably optimistic about the long run, however. This will be massively disruptive for a few months, then I expect a combination of targeted antiviral treatments and public habit changes will allow mostly-normal economic life to resume. The economic infrastructure and people will mostly still be there - the problem at that point will be all the people and businesses that are out of cash and behind on their rents and loans - effectively bankrupt. The current administration seems acutely aware of this issue and seems ready to firehose in easy cash when the time comes. As long as that doesn't change, I expect a brisk recovery.
Though it does occur to me that the cash firehose may combine with still-ramping-back-up production to produce a noteworthy burst of inflation. But then the current slowdown seems to be producing major price drops in things like fuel and airline tickets. To some extent, the final result on prices may be a wash, albeit with some whiplash en route - but I Am Not An Economist.
Henry
On 3/20/2020 9:36 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
It’s nice to agree, Henry.
I don’t have any lock on the economic effects. I recognized that the market was overvalued several years ago and accumulated cash; I’m seeing signs of panic in the the current selling but I am not seeing evidence of capitulation. I’ve bought some this past week but I’m still about half in cash; it is not yet time to call bottom.
The long run effects seem to me too difficult to predict: too many variables each of which could dramatically effect the outcome a decade from now. It does seem possible that this will prove more like 1929 than anything more recent, but mostly I just don’t know.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 9:38 PM Henry Vanderbilt <hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
Bill,
Agreed, absent catastrophe, ~18 months to where we have enough
herd immunity - hopefully mostly vaccine-produced - to backburner
this thing and move on.
I see the chief likely path to this becoming economically
tolerable in the meantime as being an effective antiviral
treatment that reduces severity to the point where death rate
drops by a factor of ten or so (more would be nice.) At that
point, with continued "social distancing" & improved personal
sanitation customs, combined with a wide-net
testing/contact-tracing/case-quarantine regime, we might be able
to resume normal economic activity without an unacceptable level
of severe infections and deaths. (I haven't run numbers on that
- the 10x reduction was pulled out of a hat on the assumption
that we're able to tolerate other widespread respiratory bugs
with that ballpark 0.1% deaths/cases. YMMV.)
Henry
On 3/20/2020 7:26 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
Henry:
We agree even down to your comments about competence and
politicians.
My only observation is that quarantine, once it reduces local R0
below one point zero, will have to be maintained until a vaccine
is available. Which—as you observe—is not likely to be widely
distributed before 18 months from now, optimistically.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 8:15 PM Henry Vanderbilt
<hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
wrote:
Bill,
R0 estimates vary all over the place. And the actual value
of course is going to vary with local customs and practices,
as modified by local containment measures. Probably futile
trying to estimate R0 now; it's something you figure out
after the dust has settled.
One data point on how far this thing spreads in a given
population, albeit far from a pure one: 3700 people total on
Diamond Princess, all tested, current near-final positive
count 712, for about 20% total infected.
Now, initially the spread on Diamond Princess was
uncontained. Then, there was a disorganized incompetent
attempt to contain it. Then the continuing flow of new
infections scared them into getting competent. So it's
definitely not any strong indication of where herd immunity
would become effective in an uncontained spread.
I suspect it is, however, a decent approximation of the
likely sequence in your average densely populated US city
with an incompetent political-hack local government.
Uncontained, then incompetently contained, then hugely scary
results, then competently contained. If only because the
state and/or the Feds step in.
Places that are well-enough run to skip the middle two steps
will see a lot fewer overall cases, I suspect.
Places that are badly enough run that they can't reach step
4 on their own are in for a really rough ride. (NYC now is
at step 3 - known infections increasing at ~70%/day - and
the Mayor is apparently not taking advice.)
A place that averages the same total 20% spread as Diamond
Princess and /doesn't/ run out of Respiratory ICU beds
should see about 200 deaths per 100,000 population. (~5% of
infectees will need a ventilator, ~4 out of 5 of those will
then be saved by the ICU treatment.) A place that does run
out of RICU beds - US average is about 50 such beds per
100,000 population - could see up to 1000 deaths per
100,000. (More, of course, if total spread ends up higher
than 20%.)
~50 beds per 100,000 of us should make it abundantly clear
why containment measures sufficient to time-spread the
infections peak a LOT are very important. (Current
initiatives might in time raise that to 60 or 70 beds. One
of the major bottlenecks is years-trained personnel.)
Entirely aside from such containment measures buying time
for effective acute-case treatments (another month at best,
more likely a few months) and a vaccine (likely a year or
more) to arrive.
Henry
On 3/20/2020 6:30 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
John:
After looking—again—I am not able to find the source for
you assertion that R0 is between 1.5 and 3.0. From where
are you getting these numbers?
Note that because some localities will not Institute
quarantine, it follows—given exponential growth of
infection—that w/i no more than a few months we will have
natural experiments that accurately measure whether herd
immunity is achieved at as little as 30% infection.
Today, I remain unaware of data indicating that R0 is not
comparable to smallpox, but definitely open to new data.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 5:01 PM John Schilling
<john.schilling@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:john.schilling@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
On 3/19/2020 7:32 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
For herd immunity, you only need 1-(1/R0) of the
population to have had it, which means you'd need an R0
of 10 to infect 90% of the population. R0 estimates
for COVID-19 range from 1.5 - 3.0, so 35-55% of the
population, not 90%.
And that's for doing absolutely nothing. Long-term,
public health measures like contact tracing and
behavioral changes like more handwashing will knock R0
down from that initial 1.5-3.0 range. If it goes below
1.0, and the virus is reduced to sporadic outbreaks
without needing herd immunity.
90% of the human population being infected is an
innumerate paranoid fantasy, and we don't need those
right now.
John Schilling
Anthony:
It will undoubtedly pass but not until about 90% of
the human population has had it and survived (herd
immunity) or until a similar fraction has had some
combination of having had it or had a vaccination.
Given pressure, the usual 18 months to get a safe
vaccine might be reduced to 15 months; assuming 6
months more to vaccinate everyone who hasn’t had it, I
get an optimistic 18 months before this is over, locally.
When the Chinese back off of their current quarantine,
look for a second wave of infections to follow: less
than 1% of the Chinese population is now immune from
having had it and survived.
Bill
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 7:18 PM Anthony Cesaroni
<anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx>> wrote:
Next year. This will pass.
Anthony J. Cesaroni
President/CEO
Cesaroni Technology/Cesaroni Aerospace
_http://www.cesaronitech.com/_
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.cesaronitech.com/__;!!LIr3w8kk_Xxm!5yiCjInjp8q0cKofOb6VvxMUWMTcHVRCGwzyWf433sKIjag2wKBewNFi30PsGCAMRauR6dXccg$>
(941) 360-3100 x101 Sarasota
(905) 887-2370 x222 Toronto
*From:* Hqnews
<hqnews-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:hqnews-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> *On
Behalf Of *NASA News Releases
*Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 7:53 PM
*To:* hqnews@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:hqnews@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
*Subject:* [NASA HQ News] March 19 Administrator
Statement on Agency Response to Coronavirus
March 19, 2020
RELEASE 20-030
*March 19 Administrator Statement on Agency
Response to Coronavirus*
The following is a statement from NASA
Administrator Jim Bridenstine:
“NASA leadership is determined to make the health
and safety of its workforce its top priority as we
navigate the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation. To
that end, the agency’s Michoud Assembly Facility
and Stennis Space Center are moving to Stage 4 of
the NASA Response Framework
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://nasapeople.nasa.gov/coronavirus/nasa_response_framework.pdf__;!!LIr3w8kk_Xxm!5yiCjInjp8q0cKofOb6VvxMUWMTcHVRCGwzyWf433sKIjag2wKBewNFi30PsGCAMRaszeieK2w$>,
effective
Friday, March 20.
“The change at Stennis was made due to the rising
number of COVID-19 cases in the community around
the center, the number of self-isolation cases
within our workforce there, and one confirmed case
among our Stennis team. While there are no
confirmed cases at Michoud, the facility is moving
to Stage 4 due to the rising number of COVID-19
cases in the local area, in accordance with local
and federal guidelines.
“Mandatory telework is in effect for NASA
personnel at both facilities until further notice.
Additionally, all travel is suspended. These
measures are being taken to help slow the
transmission of COVID-19 and protect our communities.
“Access to Stennis and Michoud will be limited to
personnel required to maintain the safety and
security of the center, as approved by agency
leadership and the resident agencies. All
previously approved exceptions for onsite work are
rescinded and new approvals will be required in
order to gain access to the center.
“NASA will temporarily suspend production and
testing of Space Launch System and Orion hardware.
The NASA and contractors teams will complete an
orderly shutdown that puts all hardware in a safe
condition until work can resume. Once this is
complete, personnel allowed onsite will be limited
to those needed to protect life and critical
infrastructure.
“We realize there will be impacts to NASA
missions, but as our teams work to analyze the
full picture and reduce risks we understand that
our top priority is the health and safety of the
NASA workforce.
“I ask all members of the NASA workforce to stay
in close contact with your supervisor and check
the NASA People
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://nasapeople.nasa.gov/coronavirus/__;!!LIr3w8kk_Xxm!5yiCjInjp8q0cKofOb6VvxMUWMTcHVRCGwzyWf433sKIjag2wKBewNFi30PsGCAMRauMcIVcFQ$>website
regularly for updates. Also, in these difficult
times, do not hesitate to reach out to the NASA
Employee Assistance Program
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nasa.gov/offices/ochmo/divisions/health_medsys/eap_info.html__;!!LIr3w8kk_Xxm!5yiCjInjp8q0cKofOb6VvxMUWMTcHVRCGwzyWf433sKIjag2wKBewNFi30PsGCAMRavZNH1vRA$>,
if needed.
“I will continue to say, so none of us forget –
there is no team better prepared for doing hard
things. Take care of yourself, your family, and
your NASA team.”
-end-
*Press Contacts*
Bettina Inclán / Matthew Rydin
Headquarters, Washington
202-358-1600 / 202-603-7522
bettina.inclan@xxxxxxxx
<mailto:bettina.inclan@xxxxxxxx> /
matthew.m.rydin@xxxxxxxx
<mailto:matthew.m.rydin@xxxxxxxx>
NASA news releases and other information are
available automatically by sending an e-mail
message with the subject line */subscribe/* to
hqnews-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.
<mailto:hqnews-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx?subject=subscribe>
To unsubscribe from the list, send an e-mail
message with the subject line */unsubscribe/* to
hqnews-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.
<mailto:hqnews-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx?subject=subscribe>