Henry:
Stay safe. I have seasonal allergies that started four weeks ago but are a
good mimic for the early stages of this bug; a good 24 hour antihistamine
both makes things tolerable and verifies it isn’t Covid-19.
In terms of duration of the economic hit I’m looking to the rate of change
in reported new infections. Once that rate stops accelerating and starts
to drop a simple curve fitting will show about when new infections should
reach zero, at least locally. In China it took about 50 days to stop
spread so we might use that as a guess in the meantime.
That doesn’t mean everything goes back to normal, of course; until there is
a vaccine follow-on outbreaks can be expected as in Singapore and China.
Bill
On Mon, Mar 23, 2020 at 12:37 PM Henry Vanderbilt <
hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Well, well. Interesting couple of days. I now have what I'd normally
call a mildly annoying generic respiratory bug. I've been told as long as
it doesn't get to serious shortness of breath (for those who own a
fingertip blood oxy meter, it's non-linear - mid nineties is normal, 90% is
go-see-a-doctor-*now* time) and/or fever, I should stay home, drink
plenty of fluids, and take it easy. And no test per local protocol unless
it's bad enough to go see a doctor, which is annoying.
Well. To Bill's economic points of three days ago... Yes, I think this
country still has considerable run-in-circles-scream-and-shout ahead yet.
(In particular, the NYC metro area has real problems with a new-cases rate
north of 60%/day in the recent multi-day average - they're rapidly
approaching half the nation's total of known cases.) The stock buying
opportunities will be around for a while, and more likely than not will get
better before its over. In a related field, real estate, I heard some news
on a business channel this am that supports my guess that things are due to
soften considerably: A realtor reported that it's getting common for
purchasers to walk away from recent peak-o-the-market contracts, despite
losing their deposits. OTOH, nobody will sell who doesn't absolutely have
to, and the loan holders will likely be holding off forcing sales for the
duration. I'd guess we'll see more of a freeze-up in real estate than a
crash.
I'm reasonably optimistic about the long run, however. This will be
massively disruptive for a few months, then I expect a combination of
targeted antiviral treatments and public habit changes will allow
mostly-normal economic life to resume. The economic infrastructure and
people will mostly still be there - the problem at that point will be all
the people and businesses that are out of cash and behind on their rents
and loans - effectively bankrupt. The current administration seems acutely
aware of this issue and seems ready to firehose in easy cash when the time
comes. As long as that doesn't change, I expect a brisk recovery.
Though it does occur to me that the cash firehose may combine with
still-ramping-back-up production to produce a noteworthy burst of
inflation. But then the current slowdown seems to be producing major price
drops in things like fuel and airline tickets. To some extent, the final
result on prices may be a wash, albeit with some whiplash en route - but I
Am Not An Economist.
Henry
On 3/20/2020 9:36 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
It’s nice to agree, Henry.
I don’t have any lock on the economic effects. I recognized that the
market was overvalued several years ago and accumulated cash; I’m seeing
signs of panic in the the current selling but I am not seeing evidence of
capitulation. I’ve bought some this past week but I’m still about half in
cash; it is not yet time to call bottom.
The long run effects seem to me too difficult to predict: too many
variables each of which could dramatically effect the outcome a decade from
now. It does seem possible that this will prove more like 1929 than
anything more recent, but mostly I just don’t know.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 9:38 PM Henry Vanderbilt <
hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Bill,
Agreed, absent catastrophe, ~18 months to where we have enough herd
immunity - hopefully mostly vaccine-produced - to backburner this thing and
move on.
I see the chief likely path to this becoming economically tolerable in
the meantime as being an effective antiviral treatment that reduces
severity to the point where death rate drops by a factor of ten or so (more
would be nice.) At that point, with continued "social distancing" &
improved personal sanitation customs, combined with a wide-net
testing/contact-tracing/case-quarantine regime, we might be able to resume
normal economic activity without an unacceptable level of severe infections
and deaths. (I haven't run numbers on that - the 10x reduction was pulled
out of a hat on the assumption that we're able to tolerate other widespread
respiratory bugs with that ballpark 0.1% deaths/cases. YMMV.)
Henry
On 3/20/2020 7:26 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
Henry:
We agree even down to your comments about competence and politicians.
My only observation is that quarantine, once it reduces local R0 below
one point zero, will have to be maintained until a vaccine is available.
Which—as you observe—is not likely to be widely distributed before 18
months from now, optimistically.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 8:15 PM Henry Vanderbilt <
hvanderbilt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Bill,
R0 estimates vary all over the place. And the actual value of course is
going to vary with local customs and practices, as modified by local
containment measures. Probably futile trying to estimate R0 now; it's
something you figure out after the dust has settled.
One data point on how far this thing spreads in a given population,
albeit far from a pure one: 3700 people total on Diamond Princess, all
tested, current near-final positive count 712, for about 20% total infected.
Now, initially the spread on Diamond Princess was uncontained. Then,
there was a disorganized incompetent attempt to contain it. Then the
continuing flow of new infections scared them into getting competent. So
it's definitely not any strong indication of where herd immunity would
become effective in an uncontained spread.
I suspect it is, however, a decent approximation of the likely sequence
in your average densely populated US city with an incompetent
political-hack local government. Uncontained, then incompetently
contained, then hugely scary results, then competently contained. If only
because the state and/or the Feds step in.
Places that are well-enough run to skip the middle two steps will see a
lot fewer overall cases, I suspect.
Places that are badly enough run that they can't reach step 4 on their
own are in for a really rough ride. (NYC now is at step 3 - known
infections increasing at ~70%/day - and the Mayor is apparently not taking
advice.)
A place that averages the same total 20% spread as Diamond Princess and
*doesn't* run out of Respiratory ICU beds should see about 200 deaths
per 100,000 population. (~5% of infectees will need a ventilator, ~4 out
of 5 of those will then be saved by the ICU treatment.) A place that does
run out of RICU beds - US average is about 50 such beds per 100,000
population - could see up to 1000 deaths per 100,000. (More, of course, if
total spread ends up higher than 20%.)
~50 beds per 100,000 of us should make it abundantly clear why
containment measures sufficient to time-spread the infections peak a LOT
are very important. (Current initiatives might in time raise that to 60 or
70 beds. One of the major bottlenecks is years-trained personnel.)
Entirely aside from such containment measures buying time for effective
acute-case treatments (another month at best, more likely a few months) and
a vaccine (likely a year or more) to arrive.
Henry
On 3/20/2020 6:30 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
John:
After looking—again—I am not able to find the source for you assertion
that R0 is between 1.5 and 3.0. From where are you getting these numbers?
Note that because some localities will not Institute quarantine, it
follows—given exponential growth of infection—that w/i no more than a few
months we will have natural experiments that accurately measure whether
herd immunity is achieved at as little as 30% infection.
Today, I remain unaware of data indicating that R0 is not comparable to
smallpox, but definitely open to new data.
Bill
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 5:01 PM John Schilling <
john.schilling@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On 3/19/2020 7:32 PM, William Claybaugh wrote:
For herd immunity, you only need 1-(1/R0) of the population to have had
it, which means you'd need an R0 of 10 to infect 90% of the population. R0
estimates for COVID-19 range from 1.5 - 3.0, so 35-55% of the population,
not 90%.
And that's for doing absolutely nothing. Long-term, public health
measures like contact tracing and behavioral changes like more handwashing
will knock R0 down from that initial 1.5-3.0 range. If it goes below 1.0,
and the virus is reduced to sporadic outbreaks without needing herd
immunity.
90% of the human population being infected is an innumerate paranoid
fantasy, and we don't need those right now.
John Schilling
Anthony:
It will undoubtedly pass but not until about 90% of the human
population has had it and survived (herd immunity) or until a similar
fraction has had some combination of having had it or had a vaccination.
Given pressure, the usual 18 months to get a safe vaccine might be
reduced to 15 months; assuming 6 months more to vaccinate everyone who
hasn’t had it, I get an optimistic 18 months before this is over, locally.
When the Chinese back off of their current quarantine, look for a
second wave of infections to follow: less than 1% of the Chinese population
is now immune from having had it and survived.
Bill
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 7:18 PM Anthony Cesaroni <anthony@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
Next year. This will pass.
Anthony J. Cesaroni
President/CEO
Cesaroni Technology/Cesaroni Aerospace
*http://www.cesaronitech.com/*
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March 19, 2020
RELEASE 20-030
*March 19 Administrator Statement on Agency Response to Coronavirus*
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